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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Message Board

  • chickyboy3 chickyboy3 Feb 2, 2013 1:47 PM Flag

    The year 2000 and a hyena chasing its tail

    I see Zero Hedge posted a reprise of the classic Cramer "dot bomb must own buy list" from early 2000. Perhaps theyre running low on bearish blather. Most of those scam outfitts are now defunct, of course. ZH and cramer have more in common than they'd care to acknowledge, all strident and loony at market extremes. Of which this is drfinitely not one.

    The point to notice in Cramer's ramblings is the narrowness of the advance at that stage of the game in 2000. Most stocks were in we'll established down trends when the Nasdaq finally peaked.

    The current market is entirely different, with very broad participation across all sectors and cap sizes. Markets don't top when everything is in sync. This is very much a healthy bull market, in spite of the constant grousings of the notoriously negative nancies around here. So dips will be bought, and higher highs will ensue, and until there's some tell tale signs of trouble, don't fear the bear. Or the hyena.

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    • Fagboy-Nobody gives a flying F'-Your thesis has no bearing to some of us that can see the opportunities that lay in front of us thanks to an overzealous Federal Reserve. Can you see those opportunities right now? Doubtful.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • Chicky, you sound like every trader, every CNBC guest and others, with the "this time it's different" mantra. You know what? It's really never different. A parabolic move from just under 1400 to over 1500 in only 23 trading days (yes, it's true), is mostly short covering. Yes, hedge funds and others joined the party, but from here the risks are to the downside, not the upside.

      That's not being negative, that's being realistic. So you know, I only trade individual stocks, both long and short. Nothing changes, you're long the better fundamentals and charts, and you're short the stocks that should be sold short. Can this market go to 1560 and match the all time highs? Sure it can. Markets overshoot both up and down.

      There's no rationalizing a four year bull market, that has suddenly gone parabolic in the last 23 trading days, with no 10% correction in over a year, maybe two. I read Zero hedge, and every article I have time to read, both bullish and bearish, because it's important to understand both arguments.

      Finally, I would look for churn at this level for awhile. They purposely wanted to close the indices over 14,000 and 1500, so that the dip buyers (and there will be many) will support the market at those levels. But churn means that the smart money will sell and take their profits at these levels. At 666 it was fear.......At 1500+ and more, it's called greed.

      • 1 Reply to moneynow27
      • Jen, I'm saying this time it's the same. Strong market breadth , strong inflows, reasonable valuations, and a continuing recovery from what may have well been generational lows. If I sound like cnbc yapping heads it's coincidental... I don't watch. There's enough noise in my head without it.

        I 'll hope to be positioned for the periodic downdrafts, but this is a rising tide and its important not not find reasons to deny the message of the tape.

    • A lot has changed since 2000. Today much more stocks are purchased with ETFs and less individual stock buying. There are stocks going up now that should not. This is the third stock market bubble since 1995. Just another bubble ready to bust.

    • They'll be some selling before Feb. options expire. You can count on that. How much is all that's up in the air sugar.

    • Why don't you check the 8,000+ stocks again!?

      How many 1000s do you follow?

 
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