The last channel from June 4th to the tippy top Sept 14th lasted 104 days trough to top. Guess what...if you take the trough of Nov 16th + 104 days....we end up right at the sequester. Hmmm.
Market will push up option prices before the event actually happens so pay attention.
What ever direction you think we take after March 1st, it may pay to start a position as early as next week to get better premium prices. JMO.