* Today J.P. Morgan has revised higher its forecast for U.S. economic growth following stronger-than-expected retail sales in February.
** We are in the middle of March now, ** I Know First system** signaled that U.S. economy recovering back in December.
I still contend there is plenty of money sitting idle that is not likely to be invested by companies in new equipment and increased workforce until they can see some solid evidence that their customer base has both the wherewithal and the confidence to buy their products.
Which will only come when their customer base sees some solid evidence that the companies they work for has the wherewithal and the confidence to buy new equipment and hire more workers......
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I just lowered the US Q1 GDP forecast to -0.5% and 2013 forecast to negative 1.2%. Yes a negative handle. I also just dropped the SPX target to 940 with 1250 by June 30. go to cash or get short real fast because the Institutions are. Retail can do it in a few minutes but it takes those big players months to par their positions without creating widespread panic.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
The jobs figures are due out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. February trade deficit data is due at the same time, and February consumer credit figures are set for 3 p.m. Eastern.
Several strategists contend that a worse-than-expected jobs number would trigger a rise for stocks, on the view that it would ensure that the Federal Reserve maintains its super-loose policy of quantitative easing. Therefore, a number that comes in much higher than expected could pose some hurdles to Wall Street’s ability to keep moving up.
We are now near the end of the first quarter, and it’s time to summarize end-of-2012 forecasts and compare them with the outcomes.
What are past forecast results?
Check an article on ** I Know First ** site.
The most bullish 2013 prediction of the four also happened to nail the most accurate prediction in 2012. Tobias Levkovich had a 1,425 target for the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2012 and the index closed the year at 1,426.
His forecast for 2013 is 1,615, right around where many of his peers have raised their targets in recent weeks. Levkovich said it’s highly unlikely that he’ll change his target midstream.
There are high expectations for Q1 earnings with the S&P 500 at record levels and an expanding P/E multiple. Q1 earnings will likely be the catalyst for the next move, not Europe or other factors.
What will actually happen if Cyprus deal fails?
If Cyprus fails to reach a bailout agreement by Monday it could trigger a serious run on the country's banks, eventually leading to an exit from the euro zone, Commerzbank analysts write.
Existing-home sales rose in February to reach the highest rate in more than three years, another sign of a strengthening housing market, as inventories posted an unusually large gain in the month, a trade group said Thursday.
J.P. Morgan and Golman Sachs pump out more hype than Hollywood and Washington combined.
Silver manipulation, London whale. Be better not have Congress restrict J.P. Morgans ability to leverage. Huh?
The Fed's Open Market Committee concludes its two-day meeting today but is unlikely to provide more clues about how it will end its bond-buying program, known in market jargon as quantitative easing.
While it has been more transparent on when it will consider raising interest rates - with targets of 6.5 percent unemployment and 2.5 percent inflation - the Fed has been more circumspect regarding its bond buying.
"I don't think there is one answer," Friesen said. "At the end of the day it comes down to their communication strategy."
The Fed's reticence to divulge their plan for exiting has some of its own members on edge, as a messy exit could throttle a market rally, the ups and downs of which have been closely tied to the asset purchase cycle.
The Fed will release its economic projections at 2 p.m. U.S. Eastern Time Wednesday, the same time as it releases the policy statement. Bernanke’s news conference will start at 2:30 p.m. Fed's outlook could be key to meeting
Fed watchers say the central bank will hold steady on policy, but its economic forecasts will be watched closely for any signs of optimism over the outlook for the next three years. If that view is too rosy, it could spark fears the Fed will end its ultra-easy money policy sooner and stocks could sell off, said economists