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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Message Board

  • stockineer stockineer Mar 15, 2013 9:51 PM Flag

    SPY TECHNICALS

    In case you guys didn't catch it, there was a nice inverse head and shoulders continuation pattern that played out this week. It predicted a minimum move to 1560. It's amazing how these things seem work out more often than not. The predicted increment is 35, so the next if it were to occur would be 1595. The other thing to keep an eye on...well, there was a breakout from the 2 year resistive trendline, but it came on such low volume that it's worth being skeptical. I'd really like to see the price come down to touch it before climbing higher because this would confirm the support. The price right now is trading between two very tight trendlines...with no margin of error on either side. Each day it seems we may get a look at which way another breakout may occur, but again, nothing....just a slow climb between the two. I've got all the charts over at stockineer, but I just want to give you guys the summary because it's pretty interesting to see it play out. Good luck guys, trade wisely.

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    • technical analysis is now only a tool of manipulation...IMHHO

    • I've just put up two more charts and some more discussion. In summary, the peak you saw today on the daily chart was the price reaching up to touch the upper most trendline. You can see the immediate pullback to almost finishing even for the day...except for the late day rally. We'll see in the next couple of days if the price can breakout high yet one more time. If this happens, there's really not much resistance anymore. In fact, since the blue sky breakout, the price has risen easily because of the lack of resistance. Anyway, the charts are on Stockineer as usual...it's easier to see the annotate charts than my rambling. Good luck guys, this is pretty nice lately.

    • In looking at long term support and resistance levels, I stumble upon something interesting in the S&P...price is still following the same trendlines since the 70's. In fact there are 3 parallel price channels, each 300 points tall that price snakes around. It looks like the price has actually broken upward into the higher channel which is pretty good news. Maybe we won't get a massive crash after all and we're back to sustain growth in the markets like the 70's - 2000?

      I posted the chart that I'm talking about on Stockineer. It's worth checking out. I find it pretty interesting how time does not seem to diminish support and resistance levels.

      • 1 Reply to stockineer
      • Hello Stockineer,I agree that there still exists the 50/50 chance that we avoid a major crash
        and will only have to suffer a "minor" correction of an appr. 50% retrace to about spx 1101.01 instead.

        Something I've been following for 3 to 4 yrs now and mentioned again last evening is
        the major trend/channel line from the 12/31/94 low proceeding upwards under the 2003 low
        arriving as resistance to the current top.
        That trend line is also the parallel channel line to the 74',82',and 09' low trend/channel line,
        originating and acting as support for the 70',71' and 73' lows.
        I'm using freestockcharts so it may be different, but try moving your upper channel line a little higher
        so it catches as support the 94' low, the all important 02' and 03' lows, and see what ya get.

    • Today was pretty historic with the Dow hitting 15,000. I hope I don't look back one day and say, "one day we'll get back there!" Here's a quick excerpt from the latest Stockineer update but there's really too much to paste here...I've also added 3 updated charts:

      "Today the Dow hit 15,000 and we witnessed history being made. The S&P rocketed above $1600 after struggling in prior weeks. Where is this going to stop? Who knows, but make hay while the sun shines because tomorrow it may not. Make as much money as you can, as fast as you can make it.

      The exciting situation is that when the current price has never been higher before, there is little to keep it from going higher. Resistance stalls price moves, but resistance is caused by groups of people who got in at some earlier point in time at a higher price and are waiting to sell to get out. When there are no such groups of people, price can move rather freely, typically. We do have something that can stop the price move, the psychological barrier of a big round price...15,000. At multiples of 1000 of the price of the Dow, price often stalls and struggles. This isn't just any thousand, this is 15,000 which could very well be what takes the wind out of our sails. At the current time, I don't recommend adding new positions. Of course no one would argue with taking a profits, but I'm in a "wait and see" mode right now. I may trim positions, but I'm really looking to see confirmation that S&P 1600 is the new significant price level. If it is, this could be an even bigger boon for investors than it is now. I would view breaking below 1600 as very negative."

      Hopefully this is a blue sky breakout and we keep making money. Good luck guys.

    • This week was rather interesting…if you like watching markets like me. The markets tend to do the opposite of what you think, so you must trade what you see not what you think. This week was a prime example.
      We’ve been watching trendline 1-2 (on the Stockineer chart) for some several months now as it is what guides our uptrend. Well…it broke on April 17th. Our attention focused on the $1540 line which is the most critical level. Breaking below this would be disastrous. Well, that happened too, but only as a market trick. The stops were gunned only to rebound quickly. The big money took some shares and caused people to chase…they know where the stops are and where traders looking to exit. This was a bullish act, the whipsaw.

      Take a look at OBV. It actually made a new high while the price still has not. Volume is a leading indicator and this tends to suggest a move higher. Another interesting thing that I viewed as bullish was another "flash crash." We got a very fast drop and rebound just like we did a couple years ago. This drop was well contained and only dropped to the trendline 1-2 before the drop was quenched. This led me to believe that the "circuit breakers" built into the market were buying on any weakness and not allowing the price to break low.

      It's hard to believe, but the market is trying to go higher in the near term. We still have several peaks of negative divergence in the intermediate term that we still must be cautious.

      This is the summary for you guys here, I posted the rest of the details and charts on Stockineer if you're interested. The market is a wild place where you can make a lot of money if you know where to look...too bad that's the hard part

    • Just continuing the conversation here...it's starting to get dire....but the main trendline has not broken. Price is resting right on the same trendline that saved the rally 4 times before. Can it do it again? I believe we'll see a little bounce to try and retest the high where it may be a wise idea to lock in profits. This is what typically happens at a market top. I've put two charts and the rest of the analysis on Stockineer if you're interested. Use these charts to form your plan, do not panic. You have no control over what the market does, but you can control what you do with your money. Good luck guys, it's starting to get pretty rocky.

    • Today, our nice little upward channel was broken. That's not the only warning sign I am seeing. While the large caps are moving up, the riskier small caps are dropping. In fact, the financial, homebuilder, technology, and several other sectors are not taking part in the latest rally. The defensive utility and consumer staples are however. So it seems that money is moving out of the riskier assets and into defensive ones which is what is really driving the market higher. I've got the charts and analysis posted on Stockineer that shows each sector. Good luck guys.

    • As a follow up to Friday's post...we just broke one trendline today...we do have a few more as it turns out. The price was walking a tightrope so any jitters would cause a break in this line. But the previous breakout did serve as support today, which is positive news. Price dropped like a stone on the open straight to that level and it held. With all the indicators showing oversold and turning down, I have a suspicion that we'll soon get to see how strong it really is. Hold onto your hats guys, it's just gotten interesting. As usual, I've put up the charts with all the information if technicals interests you. Good luck guys...just wanted to share.

    • One reason to be skeptical of the low volume breakout...did you guys see the article that Mila Kunis has gone from cash to stocks....it makes me feel like running for the sell button! Since when does this become legitimate news? :-)

 
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