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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Message Board

  • ajmanieri ajmanieri Mar 17, 2013 12:05 PM Flag

    Longs showing not even a hint of anxiety, worry or fear . . .

    wow, very short memories . . . I guess everyone that is long SPY believes that nothing can change - quickly and overnight - and that QE will not allow the market to reverse. Perhaps it will put a floor in downside risk, but it hardly means that the market will continue its melt up. At best you can hope for is a sideways market this week. But most of you who trade options will be killed in such a flat market, especially if volatility stays low. You underestimate the ramifications of a disorderly situation in Europe at your peril.

    Right now the Euro situation could prove worse than the summer of 2011 - so many central bank bullets have been expended since then and Italy's situation has only gotten worse - remember it was Spain and insignificant Greece (small in comparison to Italy) that created the issues back then. Italy is a gorilla comparatively speaking in a very unstable situation. Cyprus is the banana peel that the gorilla might slip on . . . .

    As for futures - perhaps they will not be red . . . watch the Italian bond market that will dictate this week's direction. Better hope the ECB is still willing to help the Italians right now, Monti's provisional continuation is the only thing that may allow that to happen . . .

    Really could go either way - but with a downside bias right now IMO . . .

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