This board is a very interesting social experiment. Although I have only been posting on this board for less than two weeks, I have noticed a few very interesting things. This board seems to have some very smart and interesting people while also having some very stupid and uneducated people and then everything else in between. I assume that in the real world that most people on this board would never interact with each other even if they were sitting right next to each other on a subway train. The other thing that I find interesting is that the "stupid" people don't seem to have any interst in learning from the "smart "people. I wonder what this all means. I am sure that all of this has some larger social meaning and I would be curious to get some insight from any current or retired psychologists on this board.
I read a post about a week ago from a retired psychologist about a board regular (kibbles) that I found very interesting and thoughtful.
It is unlikely you can make any determinations about how "smart" or "stupid" someone is based on what they think about the stock market. A judgement about a stranger's intelligence based on their message board comments? For some, these boards are purely for entertainment value and not informational. Others are here purely to vent or just mislead others and try to profit from it...
...to underscore the point, the quantum mechanical equations we work on in our research group as just a small component of our medicinal research are unlikely to be solved or even understood by many of the smartest guys in economics or finance, but most of the guys working on them are poor, broke scientists--they don't know much about stocks or even care. They surely know and understand less about things like tv shows (one has never even heard of "American Idol") or women.
Should I consider them smart or stupid?
It's good to be near the exit. The HFTs control close to 80% of trades, they shut down a few bots, no bids, the takedown happens. Several divergences have been signalling correction, see Walker's public charts on stockcharts, I use him the most every day.
I would really enjoy finding those who are knowledgeable and willing to teach/chat about stocks or the market. I am nearly obsessed with it. I do have a day job, so there are times when I cannot pay attention to the tape.
Investing and trading have fashions to them like everything else. The climate of 1980 doesn't resemble that of 2013, and so on. Markets have a set of contexts, political and financial. Learn those first. Then focus in one or two industries and ignore most everything else. Its too complex otherwise. Follow the leading companies because the leaders set the trends. Know your risk level and your comfortable time horizon. Don't overtrade. Use the basic concepts of consolidation and trending when looking at charts.
There, you know it all.
I am trying to learn as fast as I can. Many times I am too stubborn to listen. Trying to pay attention to the shorter term trends based mostly on technical moves. Yes the market has been profoundly up since mar of 09....as another poster said I like to trade puts. So timing is everything. Recently I found a home run, but failed to execute. I researched the Feb 25th down day. Nearly every time this candle stick appeared there was a brief continuation the next trading day followed by a huge 8-10 (or more ) run after it.
I was short the SPY at the time...it did exactly what I thought it would do...and I was too stubborn to flip the trade into a long. Lost a lot on that one. I didn't execute what I thought was the correct flip....I am wrong a lot and figured I might be again...but I wasn't...I picked the right direction and did nothing with it.
One of my posts in here called it.
Go out among your friends and see if you can figure out how much they know about financial markets. Its usually a few broad observations like earnings make the market go up, as do lowering interest rates. There is awareness that certain industries may be hot with speculation, and many are looking for the next moonshot stock like Google or Amazon. Most are buy and hold types, not market timers. Many are distrustful of our underlying government financial strength and fear inflation and taxes are going up at some point. Few seem to realize how dangerous the Fed is. Many know that stock prices don't always tick with headline news. There are few technical traders when looking at a large population of employed people. Many do not grasp just how deeply ingrained the projection of future outcomes is already baked into stock prices, and that these assumptions frequently are at odds with real time news trends. Future price projections are generally quite optimistic, portraying both a high confidence in business agility, and a belief that politicians and the Fed will underpin any economic weakness with subsidies, law changes, and a waterfall of liquidity to support easy credit markets.