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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Message Board

  • xtgeminiman Apr 10, 2013 8:07 PM Flag

    I Have Decided To Retire From Shorting Indexes

    Take it for what it's worth. Is it capitulation by the last bear on the planet? Perhaps. I have realized over the last few days that it's much easier to short leveraged bear ETFs than make money on anything else in the market. I have actually taken all of the data up through March 31 regarding leveraged bear (and the occasional bull) ETFs and the performance is truly awful. For example, if you had shorted TVIX midway through the 2011 mini-bear, you were profitable two months later despite the backwardation and high high. Ditto TZA and others.

    The indexes have been tough on me and I'm now down on the year (in my trading account, IRA and 401K are still up a decent amount). Maybe I will come out of retirement one day like I do when I retire from alcohol drinking but we'll see.

    XT's great grandfather was a rich and prominent trader during the 1920s who ended up becoming a muppet bull and pulling a Jesse Livermore. So forgive me for my skepticism of the "greatest rally of all time".

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    • People that shorted the American recovery because they hate Obama are getting their just do..

      Sentiment: Hold

    • Xt ,it will not work.
      i know what your up to.
      saying your capitulating so markets will plummet...nice
      with benny and boj main viening will just have to wait,pretty soon the data and earnings will not jive with markets daily parabolic lines and the all the junkies will od and inflation is coming,hyper.....mark this post.

    • Playing indexes doesn't it doesn't have to be that difficult. You just have to have patience to deal with indexes. The indexes represent market sentiments. you act on an index only when you have a clear idea about direction of sentiments OR just like this week, if the market was positive and if you are sure that that's the end of the run. The market cannot go up all day.

      I bought April 157 puts in large quantities just because, I believe we had a great run over the last few days for no economic reasons and the market has to correct that run. It cannot go higher all day.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • I have found the most reliable way to make money is to sell option premium, few home runs and alot of singles. If option vol is below 20 consider and you want to short try otm calendar on RUT, if vols are above 20 try an ATM iron butterfly with 40 wide wings then buy a single call to get your deltas to 3 or so. On long term side just buy atm call calendars on spy with 60 days to opex, very easy trade to manage.

      • 1 Reply to colbus50
      • We think we've figured it our. Investment banks have programs to buy as soon as the 50 average begins to get crossed. This is keeping the indices going only upward. This is due to the daily $ 4 bil. Fed gift. Also our country seems to be invincible, with no domestic danger. Seems a good choice to short the short etf's, especially the leveraged ones.

    • I shorted SPY today $158.55 but will be while

    • How difficult is it to post and NOT do a thing?
      Focus on what you will buy in 2016.
      That's all I'm doing.

      Now I don't know if I will EVER AGAIN buy any gold/silver stocks,
      seeing how easily JPM & Co.
      can short them.
      I guess they will ALWAYS be great for shorting!

      After this BULL market,
      there are not very many that I will be buying again.

      Seems to be very tough to make money
      buying individual stocks!

    • I'm no bear, but it seems to me that toward the close today was a great time to take a chance at a short. Great risk/reward.

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