strong volume on down days is at least showing the start of some distribution. I called a top on my blog of 1580-1590 or slightly higher because of the triple top. I think we are seeing that triple top now with such weak fundamentals out in the market a pullback is coming - maybe not -60% but a pullback is on it's way as our market follows the TSX, DAX and other global markets down..
I just took a look at a one month chart. The volume has become anemic. One day in this last gasp above 150 million. Volume will have to increase at some point. There is compression because of such thin trading. With so much riding on Globex now with so many all in and then some. The compression will bring on a volume spike. There is still a chance that the spike will lead to higher prices. I'm under the impression that the volume spike from the compression will bring on volatility that will lead to lower prices. The bids could drop very rapidly. With severs locking up a trading halt won't be out of the question. IMO
How can you consider technical analysis when you have a Fed buying everything. The whole market is distorted and technical analysis has no bearing in this market. Stock prices and interest rates are manipulated to serve the needs of the government.
You have to factor in for that. You have always had the Fed to deal with. That hasn't changed. What's changed is the lengths to which the Fed is now forced to act. It's an important factor in the lack of or increase in volume and volatility.
The effect of money printing works exponentially less as more is printed. I think we are at the point where additional printing doesn't do anything... remember, the FED isn't buying equities. Equities go up over reaction to the effects that printing causes - which is short term strength in company fundamentals, real estate, etc. Therefore the recent economic data which is showing a slowdown also are an indication that FED easing isn't easing anything anymore but rather created bubbles in our economy.
Very good point, you can really consider throwing ta out the window. I can't say how many times I heard this saying in last year and a half. At seminars, dinners, cocktail parties and whatever... The problem I see now is the maniuplation of the dollar now that you mentioned it. If you can control the price of that, and actually have it a lot lower than it is seen at trading then you have a hyperinflationary environment that NO ONE really reports or can actually spot. E.g, trading at 81 but actually a lot lower than the low of .76, with a sort of devaluation spot price. So like the Dow at 14,600 and sp 1560 you have a dollar that is actually a lot LOWER when you sell those advancing issues. So the higher you go the lower the devaluation, month by month, quarter by quarter. The Dow sp loses value along with the currency. Which is huge in comparision to the trading of the stocks, you have trillions not just 85 billion a month the fed is putting into things, to equal this devaluations.
Most conventional TA has not been working... just buying the dip if you can identify it is all you need to have been doing.
The Infamous Triple Top has been called since 2010, so it is doubtful it actually occurs. Again, I'm sticking to my thesis of why the market is going up and when it will stop... and unless Ben surprises or they unleash some secret financial monster out of Pandora's box, the market's general up-trend will continue on, and on and on
They are not buying corn, gold or oil. 2000 top was taken out by a small amount. The 2007 top was overpassed by a similarly small margin.
The transportation index capitulated on increased volume. The new high's are not highs at all when factored for inflation.