Definitely bearish. Now however maybe the time to start buying names like clf, fcx, cat. If cat report is poor and these stocks go down i will be a buyer. I only trade options so I would be buying DITM jan 15 calls, I use a OTM calendar put to hedge the downside.
It's partly because of a strong dollar and partly because of no demand. Since the strong dollar is a result of a weak global economy, it's DEFINITELY bearish. Deflationary environments are NEVER bullish.
Could turn out to be the observation of the century.
Falling commodity prices kicked off the great crash of 2008.
And then the first round of QE came, but I do believe that the first thrust of the recovery had alot to do with falling oil, gas, cotton, etc......in other words, deflation had a positive effect.
This view is highly speculative and dangerous given history.
But with an increased money supply like we've seen, falling commodities and materials HAVE to be a big plus, provided it's not a spiral down on every front.
I like that some sectors remain strong, but I do see troubling signs.
Then again, ditto that to last November.
Let's just pray for positive. I can go bull, bear, I don't care much, but most folks I know don't trade or pay attention to markets. They just work their butts off and hope that the retirement account gains.
I agree with your logic. Let's see what the market says....
If anything, earning season (which took a positive turn Thursday evening from what I see) will tell us everything we need to know going forward.
Watch Goog and CMG to continue running up while IBM gets crushed. (I love earning seasons.)