Markets will reverse to downside later today or will be much lower Friday, and here's how I know
The leveraged VIX plays are slightly down, or flat, well off their lows. Normally with this tape, they're down quite a bit. This is indicative of traders buying heavy protection on what they expect to be a substantial sell off in the near term.
I'm glad to hear so much disbelief of the market being able to go down... I think we are seasonally due and while it is true we are in a Fed-induced bubble, these buyers are getting impatient waiting for headlines that will bring mom& pop into the market.... a subpar GDP is NOT one of those headlines, so they will sell-off a bit, and if the news gets worse (it should) they will complete the sell-off they initiated last week...
...but don't worry, this ridiculous market won't stay down long.
Makes sense. Commercials are heavily short ES futures too and I'm sure some people sold calls last week that will need to take her back down, not to mention all the people that wrote calls last year when SPX was in the 1200s for early June.
The GDP CANNOT be 3% tomorrow with all of the horrendous PMI, manufacturing and durable goods numbers of the past 2 months. If they somehow manage to "print" a 3% number ... well I don't know the depth of the fraud then.
Since the 0.4% 4th Q GDP the economic data had been worse not better. Sequester and payroll tax IS taking a bite out of GDP.