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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Message Board

  • dave72picks dave72picks May 2, 2013 11:20 PM Flag

    ADP Vs. Non Farm payroll each month.

    I took a look at the correlation between ADP and Non farm each month for the past year. Non Farm is typically higher each month vs. ADP; over the past year the average has been +10,307 vs. ADP suggesting we may see 130K range. However, the variance has been as high as +92,000 jobs the gov't report vs. ADP in a given month and last month is was -70K fewer jobs vs. the ADP report suggesting the report could be significantly weaker. Now while a good % or the S&P have hit their earnings number in Q2, the companies in the S&P hitting their revenue targets is something like 43%. Based on this I think the number will be on the weak side. Plus their is no POMO scheduled for tomorrow to save the day and back stop things. Could be interesting.

    Thoughts?

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