I took a look at the correlation between ADP and Non farm each month for the past year. Non Farm is typically higher each month vs. ADP; over the past year the average has been +10,307 vs. ADP suggesting we may see 130K range. However, the variance has been as high as +92,000 jobs the gov't report vs. ADP in a given month and last month is was -70K fewer jobs vs. the ADP report suggesting the report could be significantly weaker. Now while a good % or the S&P have hit their earnings number in Q2, the companies in the S&P hitting their revenue targets is something like 43%. Based on this I think the number will be on the weak side. Plus their is no POMO scheduled for tomorrow to save the day and back stop things. Could be interesting.
S&P futures are already up strong. They will atke the market to new highs tomorrow on big volume.....That will be time to initiate short position..maybe half a position in S&P and weight for maybe some additional capitulation