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SPDR S&P 500 Message Board

  • fed_up_c_ws fed_up_c_ws May 3, 2013 11:16 AM Flag

    Jobs Report

    "A fire overnight at the Labor Department's headquarters shut down the building for most employees. Members of the media were allowed in for the release of the report."

    I think that fire affected the Labor Dept computers. In any event, the "upside surprise" is still mediocre and nowhere near the number of jobs needed to keep the economy from shrinking further. IF the labor force participation rate were anywhere near where it was in 2008, unemployment would be over 10%. The only reason unemployment is going down is people who have exhausted their benefits are no longer counted. I was out shopping with my granddaughter recently, an annual pilgrimage on her birthday, and this year I spent the LEAST amount of money in the last 4 years, because all prices, even clothes for the coming season, were slashed 40 to 50%. Retail shoppers are nowhere to be found. This recovery is smoke and mirrors, and when the wizard is out of moves, he will resort to propaganda. BTW, the wizard has boxed himself in and does not know how to get out. A rising market in a bad economy is a disaster as it does nothing for treasury revenues while raising expectations for interest rate adjustments the government can ill afford. In reality all the Fed liquidity has flowed to company balance sheets, where it is being used to buy back stock and issue options to senior executives. The market goes up because the share float is shrinking, simple supply and demand (this is the rising P/E we keep hearing about, but in a shrinking economy it is a sign of MALINVESTMENT). Think about it, CEO’s aren’t even interested in M&E, what does that tell you?

    UNFORTUNATELY the phony capital is not being used to grow the economy BECAUSE EXECUTIVES KNOW THERE IS NO AGGREGATE DEMAND. How can there be, the demographic train wreck called the BABYBOOMERS are retiring at the rate of 10,000/day. Anyway, the blame doesn’t lie entirely with the FED, it’s mostly the fault of an ineffective Congress going back 30 years. That was the time to grow the economy by 5% a year (real growth) to avert the looming demographic disaster, NOT NOW. NOW IS TOO LATE. The current asset inflation is just an attempt to salve the gaping wound created by the failure of the last 30 years. And baby boomers, you deserve blame as well. Did the best and brightest of the generation with most overall potential study science and engineering, did they create any transformation technology to propel our economy into a new secular growth period, or did they study how to create wealth out of thin air (i.e, WALL ST) and leave the heavy lifting to emerging market economies? When did the US go to the moon, develop the computer, jet aircraft, STS, space station, etc. In the 50’s, 60’s and 70’s, THESE ARE THE ACHEIVEMENTS OF THE PREVIOUS GENERATION, THE BABY BOOMERS DID SQUAT (other than sponge off EME’s to live well above their means!!) - ALL THE “NEW TECHNOLOGIES” OF THE LAST 30 YEARS ARE INCREMENTAL. I worked in technology my whole life; even in this country a lot of high tech jobs were filled by foreign nationals.

    Wealth cannot be created out of thin air by printing money, only the illusion of wealth (otherwise why not do it all the time, and we can all be fat and rich!). No, eventually the FED will have to try to reign in this crazy (ill)liquidity, and the only way to do it will be negative FED interest rates, I.E TAXPAYER WEALTH WILL BE TRANSFERRED TO THE BANKS. This is the exact tyranny the likes of John Adams and Thomas Jefferson fretted over; currency debasement is taxation without representation! Anyway, enough ranting. Dont be fooled by today’s stock market gains, it’s mainly short-covering. Even at “new highs”, on an inflation-adjusted basis the market is basically back to where it was 13 years ago. REMEMBER - DONT BE A BAGHOLDER.

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196.61+0.27(+0.14%)Jul 11 4:00 PMEDT

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