Futures may be down slightly but market will be down 2% tomorrow. This BS rally has been going on long enough. A bull rally is not possible when the SPY dividend is only 2% and commodities are falling. When there is no profit taking, the rally is rigged and suspicious.
All of the same factors you have mentioned have been in play for the past few years, yet none of them has come close to stopping this market. The market will correct, but not for the usual reasons.
The Japan stock market is up big time tonight. We may have one blow off ralley before the correction. As a trader, I would not trade anything between 9:30 and 10am. The Federal Reserve does their bond buying after 10am. The COT report was net positive (commercials)on the stock market. Disclaimer... long VIG currently.
Also the Baltic Dry Index is near record low's. I fear deflation more than inflation. I think that Mr. Bernanke(a student of the 1930's era depression) may agree. QE is needed, especially because of the sequester. Congress will not do anything because of the...
The weakness in the AUD should not be taking place with the indices rising and no it is not because the RBA is lowering their target rate. The RBA has been lowering their target rate because commodity demand is sliding due to declining economic growth from their main buyer-China PRC.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
the market corrects when the vix is low and short interest has dried up. then they have enough leverage to bring the market back down. seems like a correction is at least back in the cards right now.
RUT, SPX and NDX are all mashed up against a resistance trendline. Same with the DAX. I have absolutely no read on the INDU. VIX divergence has led to 100 point drops in the past. We shall see.