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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Message Board

  • moneynow27 moneynow27 May 22, 2013 10:05 AM Flag

    Any long time traders here with blow off top experience?

    By definition, you need a high volume top, followed by a high volume drop (next day or so), according to what I've read. There's a lot of volatility today, and the market is flying now over 70, now over 80, and Bernanke hasn't even spoken yet.....This is unreal.

    Let's face it, this is definitely bubble proportions, now it feels like 1999 all over again.

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    • It is not necessary for the volume to be all in a single trading session, nor for the blow off to occur in a single session. Watch for buildup in average volume, possibly followed by daily decrease as top is approached. Example: SGU 2/5/13.

    • Blow off tops are more of a commodity futures type thing. They don't happen often, it did happen with silver in recent years.

      What you're seeing here most closely resembles the stock market recovery of the early 90's, which really started to pick up steam after the markets began to break new highs.

      And notice +7 and + 8 are "big days", compared to the days when we would see +20 to +35, and also huge down days.....

      in other words, no wild swings.

      Remember, there were shorts in the 90's market, but not alot of them, and the result was a steady stream of gains with minor pull backs like you're seeing now.

      Things are a little different now, but the similarities between this market and the 94 and 95 market are considerable.

    • I think today is it, seriously. The market is absolutely on cocaine right now, I've never seen anything like this.......since yesterday...Today will be that reversal we've been waiting for....

 
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