I am amazed at the huge increase in inventory since end of last week, particularly empty houses. The dirty little not so secret is the gigantic shadow inventory of homes being held back by the banks hoping for higher prices. They are now #$%$ their pants!
there is virtually flat line pricing in my neighborhood areas. yes, thats a plural s there. I am not seeing any significant price drop or increase at all due to super tight demand and lack of houses in this way over populated neighborhood. I haven't seen a house for sell for a long while. this is not a joke. so, yeah, parts of the country is terrible, while some are good. but the housing recovery is a "bubble" I think, mainly due to super low interest rates, and that can't stay forever, and there is terrible job pays. I believe another crisis is coming a year or two... be prepared this time...70% hair cuts on the way...
"I am amazed at the huge increase in inventory since end of last week"
You look at weekly housing "inventory"? You know how stupid that is? These are NOT widgets sitting in a warehouse. The very idea of saying there is an "inventory" of housing is totally baloney. It was made up by people who are NOT in the home building business. EVERYTHING is based on local supply/demand. Combining the entire country and coming to a conclusion a meaningless fabrication. Some places didn't need to "recover" because they never had the boom/bust to begin with. You take out Nevada, Florida and parts of California and you see where the banks made their mistakes. Giving lower rates to the rest of the country that doesn't have a need or the demand for housing OBVIOUSLY isn't going change things.
Time, is all the banks need to get themselves back because the government re-writes the rules for them. The actual housing business is a different matter. It should NOT EVER get back to where it was. In fact, the government should get rid of the mortgage deduction above $100K so people who don't need their home to be an investment start investing in the stock market and new companies instead. Since when does flipping a house create a job for anyone except the con men selling rip-off seminars? The higher price just makes it harder for the person buying to eventually pay back their FHA backed loan. We DON'T NEED any business whos only success is based on the transfer of risk to government(middle class taxpayer).
Im looking at "inventory" because I want to buy a home, but of course I realize the whole thing is rigged. If the FED were not buying MBS there would be no recovery, my point was the "inventory" jumped because LT treasury rates are going up. We've seen this movie before, back in the 70's/80's it was called the S&L crisis, but back then the government basically let the S&L's fend for themselves (other than massive tax write-offs, which of course is an indirect tax on the rest of us). Now the FED is unabashedly bailing out the banks via QE. But QE is failing because like the late 70's, banks dont want to loan to the public for 30 years at 3% when they know LT interest rates must go up. That is a recipe for disaster. But to add insult to injury the effing banks have the audacity to hold back "inventory" (looking for higher prices) at the same time the taxpayer is bailing them out! ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!
BTW, its not supply and demand when houses are being held off the market