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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Message Board

  • darwins_assistant darwins_assistant Jul 6, 2013 10:33 AM Flag

    What produces massive blowoff tops

    is the growing belief that the market is riskless, when everyone reaches that conclusion and then chases performance, frequently of necessity (or lose your job as an investment professional).

    We're not there yet, but we're well into the riskless belief system. I expect greater and greater disconnects from the real economy and higher PE expansion as a result of the fact that nothing bad can happen to the system itself in a planned market.

    It would not surprise me to see SPY hit a PE of 25 or greater before this particular period of amnesia ends.

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