Yep, I came around to your position as well and have a bull/bear spread on with mid August expiration. I had been fighting the market since march and now believe we could break up out of the action since late may, but my paranoia of this market still requires me to have that short position on at all times, or either be out altogether and waiting for downside confirmation. If we break up to new highs my bear position will limit any net profit I might make from my position, but I am okay with that. I would use any such profit to buy puts at better prices for the late summer early fall sell off I think is coming.
I suspect they've been hiding something big, and late winter stress test....the FED warned them to get some things cleaned up.....we got kept in the dark.
If those banks have earnings and guidance that send them higher, we still have a bull market.
If those banks produce a panic sell.....if the canary is found dead in the coal mine......
It's going to be an ugly drop.
This is a great time to be trading. There's a triple peak on the major indices, and the prices could go all the way back down to the trough lows for a third time, or skyrocket out of here for a multi-year run.
sorry but we all already know bank are really bk,between mark to market standards,fed fund rates at zero,derivative exposure,and host of others issue it obvious that qe main and only objective is to support banks not economies.
so if your keen on all out collapse (which is very possible) short the banks.....but this will never happen not for a long time,fed makes clear that they don"t care if all things above i mentioned are true and they don"t care anymore that all know the system is riggged ,prooped,supported,manipulated it just strenghtens manipulatives ways.......free markets are done ,over....things will not change till it all collapse some day...so if you wanna be short buy some outta money as far out as you can and do nothing......otherwise be long shrter to mid term
I have in back of my mind the trend line from the bottoms of 2002 and 2009 which would carry the Spx to 600. Not saying it will, and it sounds too much like the sensationalists dent and Prector, but the trend line is there.
Forgetting about that scenario there is stil lots of room for down side even if 2009 was the start of a grand new bull market and this is just the first leg up about to correct now, or after one more push to new high. In my mind under this most favorable scenario, 135ish would be a slam dunk for a correction before the rally resumes. That would represent a 20% pullback from the high or any slight new high we might get in coming days.