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SPDR S&P 500 Message Board

  • chickyboy3 chickyboy3 Jul 6, 2013 11:51 AM Flag

    So the board is now packed with baby bulls

    Understandable. But the current pattern of spiking prices from a V bottom is not a sustainable event. New marginal highs are possible, especially with the russell on the doorstep. But without some back and fill, this market is very vulnerable to a sharp pullback at any time.

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    • Remember back in 2009 when they said a V shaped recovery wasn't sustainable? started from the bottom now we here.

      • 2 Replies to sizman
      • LOL !!!

        That response made my day. You are forgetting one big difference the market had SOLD OFF DRASTICALLY !!!

        From 1,560 the market sold off like 6 percent so a V SHAPE from the low of 2 weeks ago CAN HAPPEN but most likely I don't see it since I feel so much GOOD NEWS is factored in and lately ALL THE BAD NEWS is GOOD NEWS....that can change.

        China is a big HEADWIND.....Europe is recovering but still very weak and we are starting to pull out the "juice" that fueled some of this rally. GDP is not exploding......and unemployment is recovering but slowly. EVERYONE FORGETS SOME OF THIS GOOD NEWS (if not all of it) has been factored in....we are up close to 15% on the year......everyone acts like we are down on the year.

        All I am saying is "a pull back is still possible" over the next 1-3 months.....the chances are more that we hit 1,550 then 1,750 in July/August is my MAIN POINT but who knows......I am saying CHANCES....unfortunately, we could hit 2,000 or 1,200 as well.....who really knows.....I just play the odds (have always done well) and I feel as of the open on Monday that the CHANCES for July from the open on Monday are more to the Downside then Upside for July and August.....I can see Tech stocks finally correcting some (look at some of the runs with the exception of Apple)......rarely have I seen the QQQ up 8 straight days without a nice correction....you know what they say "but the rumor sell the news" and I believe the earnings will MOST LIKELY BE SOLD in the tech names.

        I wouldn't own IBM at 195 based just on what Accenture and Oracle reported....but again who knows but I can see BIG BLUE leading the techs down next week and Apple might "lay an egg" as well based on what Samsung reported (they had the galaxy S4 and couldnt have a good quarter). Lately everyone is back positive on Apple.....some smart money took profits on Friday as they read the Samsung news I suspect and didn't want to take the risk

      • That's a true capitulation low. The current bounce is within a trading range.

    • with the fed now controlling the market charts don't matter anymore......they will not let the market go down to far or fast

    • Have you checked the Dec, '12 V bottom?

 
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