I've been bullish on this market long-term because I know its rigged, but every time it sets up technically for a pullback it never completes... 25% runs followed by 2% corrections defy every rule in the TA Book.
This means that since TA is useless you must always be long this market to make money... which means you can never be ready for when they pull the rug out... and when they do, you will see years worth of profits evaporate in days. You will have ZERO chance of getting out.
This bubble is unlike any in history for the USA, but we've seen plenty of examples in other hyperinflated stock markets that crashed so badly, they took down entire financial systems.
Thanks for the post and bringing the greedy ones back to reality. I think we all experienced that in 2008 and know how it felt. I still go back over my 2008 and 2009 statements to remind me how good things were going into July 2008 and how much I lost 5 years of years of gross pay in a matter of weeks. Took 7 years to get back to even
Read between the lines, you have the BOJ, ECB and BOJ all engaged in weakening their currencies at the same time! There is nowhere left to go, if you think stocks are a hedge you are going to get hurt big time. Central banks are losing control of rates and oil is soaring. What happened the last time rates and oil went up together? I don't care what Fed funds are, we all borrow based on market rates, not Fed funds and we pay for gas at the pumps. Rising rates and rising oil will grind the economy to a halt and quick like!
Great post, and I agree. It goes back to the old advice that if you are making more than 15% a year you are over extended and at risk of blowing up. You have to take the gains and hedge. Less so when you are young and cheap, more so when you are old and rich. I really want to, and think I can, make a great life out of money management and patience over day trades and trickled down information.
Buy the gold miners, buy the euro banks, buy bulk shippers. You might take a bath short term but check back in 2 years. It's the only shot retail has, unless you think we wont have gold, banks and container ships in the future. I hit an inflection point a while back and I think we're at a great point to make good long term bets.
I agree 100%, i would rather make my .2% in money market rather than be left holding the bag. I wonder if Ben realizes what he's doing. Either he is one of the most evil men ever, or the emperor with no clothes. Either way it will end badly. I don't want it too, in fact I would like to keep my job and retire, but I just don't see it....Thanks for thoughts imuffin
""25% runs followed by 2% corrections defy every rule in the TA Book""
NOPE. SPX is up less than 100 points in 13 years 6.3%. The new secular bull market hasn't even got going yet. Your point of view sounds like you're very new to trading
True, but at this juncture, and especially if DJI goes higher,
it could very well hold 10K upon subsequent correction.
Though that would be devastating to many,it is not the doomsday scenario
envisioned by some, at all.
But first, have to see how high it gets.
bzzzt, this myth that you are unable to get out during a mkt crash is simply untrue. Even during the 2008 panic when big banks were failing and mkts were volatile as all hell it was still very easy to get out of a long position with minor losses if you had half a brain.
They can inflate these mkts for decades, DECADES, with QE...eventually the party will end and we go through a decade of painful hikes and tight policy, but not for many yrs....
Easier said than done. I suggest setting mental stops at 5, 10,20,30 %. Play the ranges but always sell at target points. Keep a large % in etf’s, less likely to “fall in love “ with a position and waffle on selling. Decide what you are going to buy with your profits and be happy.