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SPDR S&P 500 Message Board

  • eyeinthesky2015 Jul 25, 2013 12:31 AM Flag

    Tomorrow's analysis plus who is the Real Eyeinthesky

    Here is my report following my Bearish signal before all these idiots decided to have a party with my name:
    Our combined analysis for Thursday tells us to expect the Market to begin the day with a bias to increase, and if initial support holds it tells us to expect a test of resistance. However, if support breaks significant downside risks will surface. Initial support in the S&P is 1684, that is its respective midterm downside confirmation catalyst, and that makes it an easy focus, but the Russell has also joined the NASDAQ in breaking midterm support and those markets are already bearish. The S&P and Dow are not yet bearish, but if the S&P breaks below 1684 that can change, and they can turn bearish fast. Support is inflection, our combined analysis tells us to expect the Market to begin the day with a bias to increase given the recent test of support, but if support breaks watch out below. If 1684 breaks and if the S&P ends the week lower than where it started it will signal bearish longer term risks as well. The reversal today was important because they sold the news. That means the expectations are built in, and that opens the door for a reversal lower at any time. I have recently recommended 4 short based ETFs; I like them still of course, but recognize that the S&P held 1684.

    We have been watching 1684, the S&P will need to break below and hold below 1684 to create bearish downside risks on a market-based level, but I am bearish given our combined analysis. That bearish position has prompted me to call SRS, SKF, TWM, and SDS in recent days. These calls are starting to perform finally, but we are basically even if the positions were taken in equal proportions from where they were called (maybe down fractionally). My target is a 15-20% return, but this may require an adjustment or two along the way. I will let you know if and when I see the need of course.

    For now, we have the second sign of a reversal. The first came from the NASDAQ and Russell, each of which broke midterm support levels, today’s sell the news was the second, and if the S&P breaks below and holds below 1684 too we will have a third reversal catalyst. If a break occurs the downside risks will become serious.

    My initial target for the S&P if the S&P breaks below 1684 will be about 1600. However, additional downside risks exist from there according to the charts as well. I do consider, based on my analysis, this to be an excellent shorting range given those downside targets, but the Market has not completed the break yet, the S&P has not broken 1684, and it will need to in order for these assessments to materialize. It seems close.
    Our combined longer term analysis tells us that the beginning of a red candle is evident in the S&P, and it would require a red candle to make our longer term analysis bearish. The week is not over, Friday will need to end to confirm the red candle, but one has started to surface and that is a precursor to what could be a bearish indicator by week’s end.

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