I know many of you are probably holding puts dated out farther, maybe October - December. The market should give us a nice little head fake down in the coming few days--it will be short and shallow, but it would be a good time to cover your shorts. A euphoric topic is aligned well for September, I cannot nail the date but it will have to be between 9/3 to 9/13 if you believe Wall Street is a sinister bunch.
The top I'm looking at is the 1750-1780 area, hard to call as I have different TA giving me slightly different numbers. They still need to melt down options premiums so they can make a ton of money off the calls on a false breakout above the 4.5 year channel. This will be a very sharp rise up... it is best to be long or neutral on this run otherwise the acceleration will be put you in a world of hurt. Just wait for that sharp top before going aggressively short.
It would be fitting if the top is pinned at 1776, as I jokingly predicted a year ago for 9/2013..... that could mean these guys are planning to finish off the stock market once and for all, and all that free POMO money will have earned MASSIVE interest while sitting in the bank reserves, courtesy of daytraders, institutions, and hard-working mom&pops.... they know they aren't going to get any more money than this because the economy is not going anywhere and just like the 1930's, the cult of equities is dead.
Sometime in September, TLT will start going back up as deflation wins out.
At least I have to give you a thumb up for your points. It is Not I am on bull side, but because you got the rule of the game that the darling boys are playing. I don't know how many of us will survive 175o--1780, but the trends seems to be moving towards there. Even if it sidelines for weeks, it still hurts a lot of people on a bears side. One fact is that, I feel, bulls who are sitting on a substantial gains are sleepless and doubled their meds dosage. And imagine the dilemma of new entrants to this market....may be happy with a few days greens, then wiped out before their eyes.
And when I say deflation is coming, it is for the intermediate term. Obviously, we would expect the Fed to push back againstt that with a level of QE that is unprecedented.... that also will depend on who is running the Fed--I don't see it happening with Summers too soon.
Until fiscal policy can unlock the flow of capital, the velocity of money will remain at 50-year lows (maybe even longer period, I don't remember the data point). I am very pleased to see so many thumbs down because my analysis indicates most people are betting the opposite way, for INFLATION. We shall see, I guess.
In the VERY end, of course, the currency of the US will fail because there will be NO WAY to extract all that fake money out of the system fast enough. I don't care what Bernanke says, they don't have the tools to do it without causing major shocks in the system..... and my understanding is that financial systems must be very delicately balanced and coordinated otherwise a small shock can manifest as total destruction, and that is what I anticipate happening in the next 5-10 years (possibly longer time frame, I don't know who can predict that... of course, people like Prechter have been trying for decades)
I think they're out of bullets on account of "staying too long".
As it backfires against it'self, and it is about to,
It will lose support in the future,
and to think when oil hits 30 per gallon and below,
it really would be the ticket to prevent implosion while waiting for Washington to pass an infrastructure and public health care option.
And they never will.
But oil will hit 30 and below, no doubt.
I am holding nov puts and if/when a legit correction gets going, would like to think I can hold them until we reach a major pause. However, if we pull back to 50 day territory and doesn't look like the "big one" your scenario might be playing out and would be good idea to cash out and catch the top of the next bounce. Pretty tricky stuff though. Requires nimbleness I don't know if I have.
I follow at least 10 blogs and I swear everyone one of them says we are going up to 1750-1780, I find it very very hard to believe that wallstreet is gonna let every bull cash out at these levels, I wouldn't be surprised if we hit a top on Friday at 1709 and we get a 40+ gap down on S&P come Monday.
There are a lot of people short at these levels, so the argument that Wall Street is going to hand over cash to everyone is not a valid counter.... my guess is you will see a strong bit of short-covering at the very top, and that is very hard to predict.... my guess is the last 20-30 S&P movement could come in a single day.
You could be right, but this game is all about managing risk! As long as you are not swinging for that homerun (which, myself, I kind of need, but that's me not you guys) you will be okay.
The elongated wedge I see in my charts could be handle formation of a cup-and-handle... there are several interpretations, but plenty of other non-TA indicators all point to "the top" (at least intermediate term) being near!
Here, we just argue HOW NEAR?
That sneaky late day ramp up Friday smells fishy...leads me to think we gap down Monday, too.
But I also agree with imuffin...if there is a pullback, there's still a good chance for a push back up higher by September before a much bigger drop.