Many traders on Wall Street follow and act on TA. So there is some merit to watching things like moving averages. These short term traders provide another perspective to the fundamentals and emotions. Else market would go screaming up or screaming down with the herd most of the time.
Example: SPY closed right at 50 dma on Friday. This is not a coincidence.
I agree. A long term chart of Yahoo Finance of SPY looks to me like its going to tank and maybe (who knows) go as low as before. Look at the longest chart they have, right here. See the major camel humps. It could break out to the upside, but I think big money is going to sell, and it will likely be already in the computers in the form of layered stops. Why give up profits. Of course a lot of it will be managerial decisions to dump, run for cover. I use TA, and so does Wall Street.
The 10 year bond return went up really fast in the last 3 months or so. That's a big factor as well. Oil is very high. Inflation kicking in. Consumer Sentiment fell significantly. Retail took some lumps. The government keeps cutting expenses to meet the budget constraints. The country has become a lot less efficient, as too many haven't got jobs; disability and unemployment, and living longer. It all adds up. The dollar is being trashed and foreigners are less interested in holding onto dollars for that reason. They can buy oil or food for something more concrete, land, etc..