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SPDR S&P 500 Message Board

  • xtgeminiman@ymail.com xtgeminiman Oct 18, 2013 5:20 PM Flag

    Russell 2000 Study: Is a Major Market Correction Near?

    Significant bear market to ensue within six weeks according to seeitmarket dot.......

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    • Went thru that with a fine tooth comb, great analysis...

      The one thing he doesn't touch on, since it was simply market analysis, is the presence of Fed money flowing into the system that wasn't present in all previous comparisons...

      If you know that there's no road blocks per common sense until Feb-Mar of 2014, then markets will rise..

      Then the question is, just as the Fed has lost control of bond markets, will they lose control of the wealth effect, also, despite the 85bill/mo. There's nothing more potentially catastrophic, imo, than everyone on the same side of a trade.

      The big players will leverage up, ride the high beta's, and hedge as they go. You can already see it in the pop in Nov/Dec Vix futures...

      And once the Fed even intimates that tapering is on the table, and that expansion of margin begins to get unwound.... Oh My...

      A chart of the broader indexes will look like Apples' 5yr chart...

      • 1 Reply to dan_da_man68
      • xtgeminiman@ymail.com xtgeminiman Oct 19, 2013 5:19 PM Flag

        Good post. The fed is obviously a major MAJOR factor. One thing that's interesting is that the treasury yield is higher than the dividend yield on every major index. I imagine this will come into play eventually.

        Stocks, more than anything, seem to be driven by their momentum and perceived invincibility right now. We have to be near the final exuberant phase though,

    • relax the market will Not crash UNTIL about 3 to 4 days AFTER my Nov shorts expire

    • IF boilerroom is hot on SPY long, it's time to short.

      • 1 Reply to ascorch
      • You really need to "redo" the English class. If you could understand it, you might realize I'm skeptical of this move but watching the action to see if it's for real.

        What any of us think is going to or should happen is irrelevant. The market is going to do what it wants to. You can listen to the market or you can sit there and issue warnings every day like always. One day u might even be right. Right now however, you're up there on equal footing with Roubini and IBDman.

    • Only if 1850 S&P is tagged first. Whadda ya think of that Yeti Bear story that was on Yahoo today?

    • I was looking back at some of the S&P tops as we are of course in that trend line with May-Aug-Sep again. The May top fell back 8%, and the Aug and Sep fell back 4.8% or so each. The May top was a channel top with the Mar 2012 top which also fell back 8%. Each of those slides took 4 weeks from the top to bottom.

      Hardly the signs of a bear market I know but the channel has tightened considerably - it has to bust thru 1745 (can consolidate and drift here towards 1690 without any real damage) for the rally to go on. If it does bust thru, the move up is going to be shocking - 1800 easily and gaining .64 a day while enroute.

      Is everyone really dumping t bills that much? Can't wait to see the inflow reports this month!

 
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