Have never heard the 'swing trap' logic before...What's your best guess if it plays out the way you think it might to the downside? I'm all for some downside but the market has had a much different idea than I for a number weeks after the last low point. I am hoping that fall back under the record high is a sign the floor might open up for a drop.
The Vix moving only 4% was an eyebrow puzzler for sure. We've seen it do that on 2 point index move, never mind 20+. Lots and lots of people don't trust this 130 point pop in 2 weeks. Admittedly, that could be a good thing for the bulls.
I'm with you though. The 1848 level was the key for me and they did a little party dance to try and bluff it away today but in the end, I think they revealed their hole cards and are desperately needing 2 runners.