Stock index futures are marginally lower with the pace of quarterly earnings reports slowing down from last week's frantic pace.
Keep an eye on the homebuilders and banks today after new FHFA chief Mel Watt yesterday signaled a major change in policy for the GSEs: To make mortgage credit more easily available.
Bear market won’t come until the yield curve says so: Kleintop
“Every recession over the past 50 years was preceded by the Fed hiking rates enough to invert the yield curve. That is seven out of seven times — a perfect forecasting track record. The yield curve inversion usually takes place about 12 months before the start of the recession, but the lead time ranges from about five to 16 months. The peak in the stock market comes around the time of the yield curve inversion, ahead of the recession and accompanying downturn in corporate profits
VXN trending is part of the Bot's core logic. Once it is determined to be positive(but not excessive) slope, Lane's Stochastic Rules apply with a 21 trading day "n" value for a %K/%D cross EOD trading signal.
Using that logic, the last 3 NDX/QQQ/VXN based signals were as follows:
3/28 close: %K = 13.10 crosses %D = 7.67 = BUY
4/8 close: %K = 22.76 crosses %D = 12.32 = BUY
4/14 close: %K = 12.74 crosses %D = 6.55 = BUY
3/28 signal using QQQ:
at one day: = +.71%
at two days = +2.48%
at three days = +2.74%
4/8 signal using QQQ:
at one day: = +1.71%
at two days = -1.43%
at three days = -2.58%
4/14 signal using QQQ:
at one day: = +.33%
at two days = +1.66%
at three days = +1.68%
The NDX/QQQ/VXN signal can be used with any trading vehicle. The one day results after the above BUY signals on the SPY were as follows:
3/28 signal @ 3/31 close = +.81%
4/8 signal @ 4/9 close = + 1.07%
4/14 signal @ 4/15 close = +.68%
On March 31st 2014, I Know First shared the algorithms market outlook and specifically highlighted a foreseeable rise in market volatility. Since that date the Volatility Index (VIX) has jumped 30% in accordance with the algorithmic prediction
Stocks look set to pick up where they left off on Friday, with tech and small caps again leading the slide:
Nasdaq 100 futures are off 0.9% and
Russell 2000 futures are down 0.8%.
S&P 500 -0.5%.
Among the companies whose shares are expected to see active trade in Monday’s session are Tesla Motors Inc., Facebook Inc., and Netflix Inc. in the wake of the sell-off in so-called momentum stocks recently.
Earnings season kicks off this week with results from Alcoa and J.P. Morgan Chase, once again putting the disconnect between slow profit growth and a record-setting stock market in the spotlight.