I thought I would provide some SMART advice to the LNKD PUT purchasing SUCKERS that, if they can comprehend it, will allow them to avoid suffering MASSIVE $$$ LOSSES
First, you should understand that the slimesters at the major wall street firms and funds generally ALWAYS take the "seemingly irrational" position in stock derivatives...and they use their captive whoore shills in the Big Media to deceive and dupe their small spec counterparties into believing that adopting the "seemingly rational" position in derivatives purchases will pay off, when it almost never does, certainly NEVER in the near term.
In the case of key social media giants like LNKD, what that means is this: the slimesters at the wall street investment banks and fund will plant one news article after another, day in and day out, suggesting that LNKD is a superbubble, based upon high PE ratio....based upon bulti-billion dollar market valuation....based upon insider sales data.....etc.,etc.....in effect, they use every kind of FUNDAMENTAL info to convince the small spec SUCKER that the stock is a bubble waiting to burst at any moment.
The result: the small spec DUPES wlll take the "seemingly rational" position and bet against the stock in question, and the slimesters at the investment banks and funds will take the "seemingly irrational" counterparty position....and in the case of LNKD that amounts to small spec boobs buying most of the LNKD PUTS....while the slimesters at the funds and banks WRITE most of the those PUTS while simultaneously purchasing most of the calls.
However, as I tried to demonstrate to the LNKD PUT purchasing DUPES, the near term FUNDAMENTALS of stocks like LNKD are ALWAYS secondary to the STOCK TECHNICALS, and in the case of LNKD, those technicals happen to be MASSIVELY BULLISH, by every indicator and definition.
But THE most important technical indicator remains the excessive numbers of LNKD PUTS purchased by AMATEUR SUCKERS.....each and every PUT in a hi cap social media stock like LNKD is typically WRITTEN by slimesters at the major investment banks and funds, and they very very very very rarely lose such bets, since the investment banks and funds have the market muscle to move stocks in any direction they choose, at any time.
Bottom line: your FEB LNKD PUTS are all effectively wiped out, not tomorrow, but TODAY....you are simply awaiting the INEVITABLE result, because the destination of ALL PUT derivatives in hi cap social media stocks is determined almost entirely by who is the purchaser and who is the WRITER.....and if you for one moment believe that some little ma and pa kettle in Iowa or Nebraska has the financial wherewithal to WRITE PUTS in LNKD......if you for one moment think anybody other than a Goldman, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, GE Capital, Fidelity, Vanguard, etc. are WRITING those PUTS....then you are truly a naive small spec DUPE to the nth degree.
If you got suckered into buying LNKD PUTS by the slimy fund and bank shills placed on this message board, spouting all kinds of FUNDAMENTAL warnings....all kinds of "LNKD crash is coming soon" NONSENSE.....all kinds of "insiders are selling" SCARE tactics......all kinds of "the PE is way too high" BLABBER.....you best close out those INEVITABLY WORTHLESS LNKD PUTS, and convert immediately to LNKD calls, to the max. In doing so, you are emulating the major investment banks and fund pros derivatives strategies.....and you can only win in the stock market on a consistent basis by emulating the investment strategies of the SMARTER market vets and pros.
In conclusion, there are those hard core cynical amateurs who simply disbelieve any kind of compelling logic or advice simply because they are convinced that FUNDAMENTAL analysis alone determines CURRENT stock value.....when any experienced market vet will tell you that a stock's "momo" can carry it for YEARS in a direction that defies ALL FUNDAMENTAL analysis. Yes, the FUNDAMENTALS in LNKD do not support current market value, but the strongly BULLISH TECHNICALS very much do.....not to mention the very important TECHNICAL REALITY of who is WRITING the large LNKD PUT sizes, and who is buying them.....and to reiterate, if you for one moment believe small specs have the wherewithal and financial power to WRITE large sizes of PUTS in triple digit, $12 billion, hi market cap social media stocks like LNKD, then you are genuinely DELUDED, to the nth degree. These kinds of stocks only topple when the investment banks and funds decide to take the NET short derivatives position (buying puts, WRITING calls) and anybody capable of even the most basic empirical derivatives analysis can see very clearly that time is NOT now.
While I generally agree with your thesis, in the case of Linked In I think the options are so thinly traded that I don't think the MMs and large investors would move the stock just to screw the retail option holders - the recent Apple bust is more likely the scenario that fits your thesis.
In the case of most bubble stocks, the game is different - large investors get hold of large blocks of stock early and then run up the price and hold it up for a long period of time so they can pass off their shares over time directly to retails who are stupid enough to buy them and/or indirectly to retail by the fact that indexed funds and ETFs that are tied to Nasdaq are steadily buying LNKD at steadily increasing prices.
When the large investors feel this has gone long enough and they have got most of the benefit they are going to get, they let "normal" market dynamics take over and at that point the stock can take a dive based on its "true" fundamentals.
So all this short term noise about MM manipulation and max pain is too simplistic and only applies to selective places where there is a very large unusual amount of options trading by retail like AAPL.
So if you are going to short LNKD you better have the ability to hold that short for a long time (last year I made a bundle on shorting NFLX and I had to take a lot of pain when it rose from 205 to 300 before it crashed to below 100).
Your further replies and insights are always welcome.
The large banks and MMs always use their pricing power to screw the little guy.
Interestingly enough though, contrary to what I had been reading from the _insects posts, the media has been all bullish on LNKD. There have been almost no negative mainstream media articles. They all mimic the _insect by saying that LNKD is a market leader and a powerhouse and compare it to google, amazon and facebook.
I am not sure what the _insect's agenda is. It is most likely that he is being paid by someone, such as Citadel to help incite people and drive them in a particular direction ... although Yahoo does not seem to be a very good vehicle. By seeding truth into his lies he seems to think that people will believe him.
Personally LNKD is the last stock that I would have anything to do with, other than as a pure volatility play. It is far too subject to manipulation. I would not buy or write options in this stock.