Tough call, but they usually spike up when business conditions dictate the opposite. They always preach about anticipating the future but the truth is , it doesn't matter if it ever materializes or not, its just a reason for the stocks to go up. 50 has been tested so many times and everybody shorting at these levels, it wouldn't surprise me one bit for a breakout. Of course the whole market needs to move, and I'm not real confident in that happening. Do the opposite of what the news dictates !!!
I was just thinking about early 2002 when everybody knew business was slow, yet there was old bullet-proof KLAC up at $70.00 before it fell to the mid $30's. This stock and sector will eventually be a good short once the momentum players can't run it up any higher. By the way, have you noticed that LRCX is trading very close to its year 2000 bubble year highs?