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Jack in the Box Inc. Message Board

  • john.heil2 john.heil2 Jul 26, 2010 1:30 PM Flag

    Chipotle results helping JACK

    As I have been saying all along, sooner or later the people on Wall Street are going to make the connection between the 1000 unit Chipotle, and 500 plus unit Qdoba, since the companies are just about the same in terms of the dining experience offered. (Mexican grill, fast casual concept) In fact, they both originated in Denver about the same time. McDonalds was more aggressive in developing their wholly owned subsidary at the time, than was JACK which came into the picture a bit later with the purchase of Qdoba. MCD spun off Chipotle and it really took off. The same thing will likely happen to Qdoba. The principal question now is: will JACK simply sell Qdoba to an aggressive developer say like YUM who I think would like to be in that space, or will JACK spin off the operations of Qdoba to its present shareholders? Take your pick, either one is worth at least $2.00 to $3.00 per share to JACK, but, and here is the important point, RIGHT TODAY! In other words, JACK should be selling for at least $23. right now (factoring in the present value of Qdoba as a separate entity) which would still make it the cheapest stock in the group. So, buying JACK at less than 10X current earnings, you not only are getting a mighty cheap stock at a tremendous PEG ratio (predicated on their expected 5 year growth rate), but also you are getting Qdoba for virtually nothing. Still, the investment world has not awaken to this reality. "Rip Van Wall Street" continues in its deep sleep which now resembles a comatose state, or a serious inebriation from too much of whatever it is drinking these days. Best, Big J in L.A.

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