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Jack in the Box Inc. Message Board

  • XTGO XTGO Jan 13, 2000 1:21 PM Flag

    bgh92109

    A while back I speculated that JBX lengthens its
    first quarter for the reason you gave. Have you
    confirmed this with the company? I keep forgetting to ask
    them this question.

    I object to this practice
    because it adds to the confusion of comparing quarters,
    especially looking at consecutive quarter-to-quarter growth.
    If the original intention was to make their slowest
    season, the first quarter look better, it has only
    produced the opposite effect on the second quarter. For
    the past couple of years, the second quarter results
    appear to show a significant consecutive quarterly drop
    in earnings after a casual glance at the numbers.
    The real reason is that the second quarter has only
    12 weeks in it compared to the first quarter's 16. I
    feel that when (prospective) investors are scanning
    fundamentals, this fact is not obvious and it looks like a
    slump. Then the two best seasonal quarters, the 3Q and
    4Q come in higher.

    If the intention is to
    "even out sales", it seems JBX would be better off
    putting 14 quarters into BOTH the 1Q and 2Q. I have never
    owned a company that had quarters of differing lengths.
    I suppose it can be argued that most comparisons
    are made between the same quarters, current vs.
    previous year, but consecutive comparisons can also be
    important to show trends in other quarterly expenses. I
    would prefer quarters of even length and not have to do
    the extra math. Many companies have boom or bust
    seasonal patterns and shareholders expect performance
    variance.

    I also wish they would release balance sheet data
    EVERY quarter, like EVERY other company I have ever
    owned.

    As always, do your own research,

    David

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • I agree. I also got the annual today, and thought
      it was excellent. It's refreshing to see a company
      wrap some important selling points in an entertaining
      package.

      I only hope today's putrid action in the stock
      isn't "the market's" vote on the report!

    • I just received my copy today. At first, I was a
      little wary of its "lightweight" first impression, but I
      enjoyed it. It's short and entertaining, in the mode of a
      Dr. Seuss book for children. There are some pretty
      funny lines in the rhymes.

      Most interesting is
      the central theme in the story, a tale that sounds
      familiar to everyone on this board: "Cutting edge startups
      can make quite a splash; The best ones can earn you a
      mountain of cash. Get real! Come off it! It could be 12
      years before some turn a profit! Investors who frown
      upon earnings-free quarters Said, 'Give us a firm
      built on real bricks and mortar!'"

      I don't know
      if JBX can get some respect by talking more openly
      about it, but it's worth a shot. However, I don't see
      the tech feeding frenzy ending any time soon, since
      many believe these are the companies that are becoming
      the "new economy". Did you know that despite the
      surge in the Nasdaq and other market indexes, 68% of
      all NYSE stocks declined in 1999? Sadly, JBX was in
      that majority camp. Right now, we're almost exactly
      where we started one year ago in January '99. Let's
      hope the gains we make this year will
      STICK.

      David

    • You may recall my own critical comments on last
      year's annual report. It wasn't so much the comic book
      format (a gamble considering JITB has had a problem
      being taken seriously) that I objected to. I just
      didn't identify with the dark, almost sinister leading
      character who was supposed to be "Joe Investor", AKA me,
      you, us. Hopefully this year's version won't include
      another cartoon with this rude leading character grabbing
      innocent JITB employees by the shirt or the tie,
      threatening them into answering his questions. I just didn't
      see the humor in that at all.

      Ok, Ok, if
      Warren Buffet liked it, who am I to criticize? Then
      again, Mr. Buffet had a pretty bad year in '99, while my
      own easily beat his best ever. ;-)

      David

    • It was a brief article, discussing the first 'x'
      number of pages of the new annual report being done in
      whimsical verse, and the humorous difficulties JBX's
      director of corporate communications had in coming up with
      some of the rhymes. It went on to mention the comic
      book format of last year's report, and how Warren
      Buffett had enjoyed the report so much he ordered extra
      copies, but declined to comment on his position in the
      stock (if any).

      That was about it. But I must
      admit that the Buffett item sent my mind racing a bit,
      imagining Dairy Queen dessert menus in each Jack in the
      Box. El Pollo Loco out here has Foster's Freeze
      co-branded units, so I guess that kind of move is always a
      remote possibility for other chains.

      Hope that
      helps.

    • Yeah, posting with our real names (I do, am
      assuming you too) makes one more circumspect about
      plagarism, pumping and flaming. But I beleive you can quote
      excerpts, with proper attribution, without risking a knock
      at the door. Your call of course...but maybe if you
      have the time, you could paraphrase some salient
      details. Be careful, thanks for sharing, ~Geo.

    • Great handle!

      Forgive me but I'd rather not. The last time I checked Dow Jones has a bigger legal budget than I do...

      Regards.

    • Can you please post the article you mentioned?

      Thanks,

      LeStomach

    • You have to be a subscriber to visit the link.
      But this talks about whimsical rhymes in the new
      annual report and mentions how much Warren Buffett liked
      the previous JBX report. Not a bad fan to have at
      all!

      http://interactive.wsj.com/articles/SB948062091154787374.htm

    • Did NOT confirm lengthened first fiscal period
      with company. Read between the lines of the
      information in their 1999 10K report. I can understand
      they're trying to smooth out sequential quarters
      comparisons in addition to the year-to-year period
      comparisons. What I
      do NOT! understand is the FYE on the
      Sunday closest to September 30. To me, seems
      beyond
      avant-garde.
      I got into JBX in November @ 22. DBAB upgrade was
      what got my initial attention. If I would have had
      some profits, I would have added to position when it
      pulled back below 20. But with loses, I didn't want to
      chance following it down.
      As a new guy in JBX and on
      this board, I'd like to thank David for all the
      "extras" he contributes. I went back to the beginning of
      November to try to get up to speed. In addition to David
      I'd like to thank many of the other participants. You
      know who you are.
      Especially helpful was David's
      extensive contribution of the Conference Call. Wow!

      • 1 Reply to bgh92109
      • Welcome to the JBX shareholder family. Yes, this
        is a great thread. Years ago, I felt like the Maytag
        repairman, first on Motley Fool, then Silicon Investor and
        now here on Yahoo!. But in the past 9 months, many
        excellent contributors have begun posting here. It's rare
        that a naysayer or basher shows up, but unfortunately,
        that's just testament to JBX's relative obscurity. Trust
        me, if we were to rocket to $32, they would start
        showing up. The stock forums for every other more widely
        held company I've owned has its share of
        pariahs.

        I've been in JBX (then FM) since $5. While the lion
        share of gains has been made from its recovery, JBX is
        still a major holding in my portfolio. Why? Because
        after 5 years, I can still say that this company is
        relatively undiscovered, undervalued, and a nice growth
        stock that has the potential to double in the next 18
        months. For many investors in this market, it's hard to
        get excited about a stock that isn't going to double
        in the next week or month, but that fever isn't
        going to last. I believe value strategies will return
        to favor eventually.

        I don't often say it
        here, lest I sound like I'm hyping too much, but beyond
        my more conservative price target of $32, this stock
        has the potential to be $40+. Even S&P agreed with me
        last spring (see message #857). Not a multi-bagger,
        but a lot less risky than many other growth stocks
        and most of the high-flyers out there with P/Es in
        the stratosphere. JBX is my conservative growth play.
        I have confidence in the company and I know it
        well. It is very well-run, I like their product, their
        promotional campaign and their growth strategy. Most
        importantly, they have a 19 quarter track record of success
        and growth in a very competitive business. That gives
        me confidence. I've never suffered too long by
        buying on numerous dips and slumps in the past, although
        this latest one has been particularly long and it
        remains to be seen when we'll be getting back to its old
        highs.

        Good luck,

        David

    • JBX has a 52 week fiscal year, which is 364 days
      a year. A calendar year has 365 (or occasionally
      366 days). Since JBX always wants to have a fiscal
      year end near 9/30, they will need to add a week to a
      fiscal year every 5 or 6 years to catch back up to the
      calendar year date. For example, FY end 10/3 -> FY end
      10/2 -> FY end 10/1 -> FY end 9/30 -> FY end
      9/29 -> FY end 9/28 -> FY end 9/27 -> now
      must add one week -> FY end 10/3.

      Of course
      in reality, leap years play a role. With a leap
      year, the fiscal year will lose two days to the
      calendar year. Basically , a 52 week year will always lose
      a day (or two) to the calendar year and you need to
      add a week every 5 or 6 years (depending on the
      number of leap years in the time frame) to catch
      up.

      By the way, it's interesting how my explanation of
      how "the extra week makes the fiscal year start
      alomst one week later in the calendar year" got erased
      from the message board. It was message #1519. Oh well,
      this information isn't really too useful to readers
      anyway. Hopefully it fulfills the curiosity to the weird
      fiscal years, if anything.

      • 1 Reply to JCLJorgenson
      • Yahoo!'s message boards have been acting up a lot
        lately. Sometimes posts disappear and then reappear, or
        get renumbered. Other times, abusive posts are
        deleted, which lead to gaps in the sequential numbering.
        This morning, I could not reply to any posts for a
        while.

        Are you sure #1513 isn't the post you thought was
        erased? In it, you mention that the fiscal year is
        starting almost one week later.

        David

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