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Jack in the Box Inc. Message Board

  • bigtrader1 bigtrader1 Feb 15, 2000 5:52 PM Flag

    29%profit rise! Austinman sucks! GoJBX!

    Way to go JBX! Hey Austinman, take your sorry down-trottin analysis somewhere else....

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    • and thanks for not ribbing me for my conference
      call disclaimer: "I tried to be carefly". Surely some
      of you must have laughed out loud as I did when I
      noticed this typo after posting it. That one's a
      classic.

      David

    • Add my thanks to the list, David. I can't use 800
      numbers in the States from here (France), so it was a
      real pleasure to not miss out on the conference call.
      It's a pleasure to read your posts. I'm sure that you
      are the one of the big reasons that this board sticks
      to business.

      Dennis

    • Arnie,

      My apologies. I left a lot to the
      imagination in my last post. The market closes for me at ten
      o'clock PM, so my only excuse is that I need more
      sleep.
      What I meant to say about NTAP is that it is an
      example of where the money in the market is going. The
      overall market is up, but it is being carried by certain
      sectors. Interest rates are only 25 basis points higher
      than they were right before the Long Term Capital
      disaster. (I think that's right, if not my apologies,
      again.) LOok at NTAP. Its low, around the middle of June,
      was about 19. JBX hasd its high of the year around
      the middle of July. They have moved in opposite
      directions since then. NTAP will make 39 cents this year.
      Given its projected growth rate, it will make about
      $1.80 by 2004. Analysts are saying that it is worth
      $200 a share, right now. They are lying, but it is
      being bought. By "traditional" measures, JBX is the
      better buy. JBX will exist in five years, in one form or
      another. NTAP might not. Speculative gambling is where the
      money is going.
      The money is not leaving the
      market, if anything there is more going in all of the
      time, very much of it on margin. Rising interest rates
      will have a short term effect on financial stocks, but
      probably not on margin players. Remember, the brokerages
      make money on their margin accounts, so they will make
      it attractive to stay there. For companies with
      wildly inflated valuations, their alternative is to use
      their stock as capital. Mark Twain wrote in "Roughing
      It" of his time in Virginia City, Nevada during the
      silver rush. He said that it was the strangest of times
      because everybody would use their stock for money, and
      retailers would accept it. Everyone was rich, but no one
      had any money. That bubble collapsed because only one
      mine ever produced, the Comstock. The others were all
      worthless speculations.

    • David, I'm on the road where I found your
      transcription of the conference call more helpful than ever.
      THANK YOU!

      Without gilding the lilly, as I defer
      to the expertise and command of both you and Arnie,
      may I humbly submit that you are both right in many
      respects?

      Hey, both of you guys, can we leave
      politics out of this before the thread really
      disintegrates? ;->

      BTW, I was briefly in San Francisco
      last weekend and was surprised to see a Jack unit in
      ground floor retail space almost diagonally facing the
      new Metreon attraction. Seemed like a departure from
      the norm -- are there other units like this one
      without drive-throughs out there?

      Thanks again
      David, and to all for the spirited and entertaining
      posts. No good deed goes unpunished, they say, but I
      think the JBX crew and all of us who are long will have
      our day once again.

      CN

    • I have not analysed them all either but the
      traditional industries are, for the most part, tanking. It's
      been all over the financial press that most stocks are
      down so it must be true. Right? :-) Most stocks I
      follow that aren't high tech are in the toilet.



      Arnie

    • You're right, you didn't say anything about
      customers cutting back spending at QSRs. Contrary to your
      assertion that I was purposefully misstating your comments,
      I actually pulled a Quayle/Bush Jr. If you had been
      following the posts more closely, you would have seen that
      I got JCLJorgenson's comments on consumers cutting
      back spending mixed up with your post. (His came right
      before yours) That's what happens when I try to whip out
      a reply on my way out the door.

      As for your
      main point, do you believe because of rising interest
      rates, every sector other than tech is also in the
      dumpster? (all leaders falling to or through 52-week lows)
      I confess, I have not analysed all sectors of the
      market.

      David

    • Interest rates HAVE played a significant part in
      all averages you mention. We've had four
      25-basis
      point increases in the Fed Funds rate since last
      summer. Ever hear the term, "Don't fight the
      Fed"?

      On your other points, I think you're spot on; well
      said. Always remember, whenever there's a seller,
      there's a buyer, and vice versa. The point is to be on
      the right side of those differences.

    • Re: NTAP. If you own it, congrats. If not, why
      not? :-)

      For the record, NTAP is also high tech
      and is in a separate category as far as the market is
      currently concerned. Here's a bit from their profile in
      Yahoo: "Network Appliance, Inc. and its subsidiaries are
      engaged in the design, manufacturing, marketing and
      support of high performance network-attached data storage
      and access devices, which provide fast, simple,
      reliable and cost-effective file service for
      data-intensive network environments. The Company is a supplier
      of network attached data storage and access devices
      called filers."

      I agree with your assessment that
      the market was/is overpriced but the question is
      compared to what? Answer: Historical averages. And my
      question to you is what has caused prices to turn down? If
      not interest rates, then what? Earnings? Not so.
      Lower sales? Nope. Reduced future prospects? No. My
      comments are related to the overall market and are not JBX
      specific, although JBX is affected by market
      sentiment.


      Arnie

    • NTAP went up 23 7/8 to 163 1/8 today because it
      had earnings for the quarter of 19.8 million dollars,
      or 11 cents a share instead of the 10 cents a share
      that the analysts predicted. Interest rates
      schminterest rates. The market is down but not because of
      interest rates. The market is down because not too very
      long ago the entire thing was overpriced, including
      JBX.
      The freak show on the NASDAQ continues, but
      only just. There is not going to be a crash, but there
      is a resizing going on, and you'll have to wait for
      the end of that. Things will get better for good
      companies with in the nest two years. Be patient, and JBX
      is a buy right now. I bought in at 22 5/16, so I was
      early, but then, I've never been on time in my
      life.

      Dennis

    • Re: CKR. I still think so; just not yet. It's at the place FM was the year before it bottomed at 3 1/4.

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