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Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. Message Board

  • sol_rosenberg212 sol_rosenberg212 Aug 13, 2013 12:36 PM Flag

    Guidance is going to be cut

    Q2 results show there is no way CHCI is going to hit its guidance of $64-69m. It also seems unlikely they will be profitable this year too which is the other part of mgmt's guidance. Keep an eye on the minority interest line item, that is going to significantly cap any upside for the stock holders. Mortgage rates are going up = less home buying.

    Book value is $0.28 per share. The average homebuilder trades at 1.7x book value. Do the math....

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    • I was correct. Co is now projecting lower settlements, lower revenue, and break-even profitability for 2013. Even the lowered guidance looks like a stretch and is heavily loaded for Q4, basically they are just praying for a lucky break in Q4. Hard to see that happenin with lower US Govt employment and higher mortgage rates.

      • 1 Reply to sol_rosenberg212
      • This is entirely misleading. The company has reaffirmed guidance and the backlog is up big this quarter to $18.8 million. By comparison, the backlog last quarter was only $9.7 million. The issue is that it's unpredictable when actual settlements will occur, but it seems clear that they can easily meet guidance, unless of course there is a huge rash of cancellations. This is of course possible, as is anything, but it seems improbable.

 
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