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Sanofi Message Board

  • mcj96 mcj96 Jul 13, 2010 12:24 PM Flag

    SNY's Elitek is vulnerable to SVNT's Krystexxa

    SVNT's Krystexxa is expected to be approved in 2 months (9/10). Unlike SNY's Elitek, SVNT's Krystexxa is not expected to have blackbox warnings. Krystexxa-like Elitek-rapidly lowers uric acid levels. Here's an old article that highlights the key advantages of Krystexxa(Puricase) vs SNY's Elitek: http://seekingalpha.com/article/39459-savient-could-cut-into-sanofi-aventis-uric-acid-reduction-business It may be wise for SNY to play defense and acquire SVNT to defend the TLS market and to-more importantly- dominate the much larger treatment-failure gout market worldwide which is estimated to number over 1 mil patients. As an orphan biologic, analysts estimate Krystexxa will command high pricing power in the neighborhood of $30,000 to $48,000/year, per patient. SVNT has guided that it plans to sell the company post approval to maximize shareholder value. Krystexxa is estimated to be worth around 4x *peak US revs (*$500M)or approx $2B ($30/sh)to a nearterm buyer. Best wishes to all.

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    • Now that SVNT's orphan biologic Krystexxa has been approved, SNY may play defense and acquire SVNT to protect its uric acid lowering Elitek franchise, and to expand into the much larger treatment-failure gout mkt which SVNT's Krystexxa will dominate.Krystexxa's patents extend to 2026. The FDA has estimated a 90,000 US treatment failure gout mkt. SVNT's Krystexxa will have the same high pricing power as Elitek, but a much larger world mkt(over 200k). Analysts estimate $500M in US peak revs and double that worldwide ($1B). SVNT is worth approximately $2-$2.5B in a nearterm deal. Finally, **Decision Resources' 90 US & EU rheumatologist survey concluded that SVNT's Krystexxa will be the "gold-standard gout therapy in 2013-2018".

 
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