The length of time already elapsed while SNY has hired topguns poring over GENZ's books should tell anyone with a brain that the numbers DO NOT look so stellar. After the head scratching is finished, a sensible board of directors might calmly walk from this deal, even at $69 with a contingent value added.
Then, if, rather, that happens, GENZ drops like a rock in trading while SNY at least regains some footing and has an opportunity to invest elsewhere.
I don't know the history on Campath other than the time that Genzyme has had it. I really don't see the value here for Sanofi either. Genzyme had so many persistent problems in their Allston facility that the FDA actually issues a consent decree. Still, they have never fully recovered from that mess.
I have been considering buying puts on the prospect that Sanofi does indead walk away from this deal now that they are looking at the books. The current portfolio is not worth $18 billion and Campath if (and that is if) approved for MS is likely not a multi-billion dollar market as GENZ would have everyone believe.
Anyway, interested to hear more on the Campath history.