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Sanofi Message Board

  • mcj96 mcj96 Feb 18, 2013 12:21 PM Flag

    SNY's Elitek (Rasburicase) *patent expires on July 12th, 2016 and it will need to replace lost revs(*patent # 5,382,518)

    SNY's Elitek lowers uric acid acid levels in patients taking anticancer treatments. SVNT..... owns a recently approved orphan therapy called Krystexxa which also rapidly lowers uric acid levels in very sick patients that have multiple comorbidities. Krystexxa has patent protection till..... 2026...... and has zero competition worldwide for the Refractory Chronic Gout (RCG) market. SVNT is initiating 3 label expansion studies for Krystexxa in 1)Dialysis(results come out in June), 2)Induction Maintenance, and 3) Organ Transplant. Since SNY has very deep pockets it might also consider initiating a 4)Tumor Lysis study for Krystexxa and another for 5) Kidney Stones. All 5 additional markets could expand SVNT's patient population to over 500,000 patients worldwide, at $3,000/dose. Given that Krystexxa has patent protection till 2026, Krystexxa's pricing power could reach $9,000-$10,000/dose by then. I'm presently long 30,000 shares of SVNT at a cost basis of .74/sh. I think SVNT is worth at least 2x peak world rev estimates or about $600 mil in a buyout. SVNT's market cap is currently well under $100 mil. SVNT is estimated to have about $40 mil in revs this year and about double that next year with the EU launch beginning in the 2H13, followed by a Japan filing. In summary, SVNT owns one of the most powerful uric acid lowering therapies in the world right now that has patent protection till 2026. Most importantly, Krystexxa can rapidly melt away the most stubborn gout tophi in hours and days vs years for conventional oral therapies. Good luck to all.

 
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