TSN’s chicken margin was not great … they too were hurt by lower margins in Mexico, but also TSN is expanding in China and other parts of the world … China put a lot of chicken in the freezers with the avian flu scare last spring … TSN is not profitable in China currently … domestically TSN is in buy v. grow mode .. they will not produce more than what they have a market for … it will be Tyson's chicken producer vendors that will get hurt with any over production … how would you like to be a producer and have your competition as a customer … not a good place to be … IMO TSN’s sales formula is more weighted to the input cost component than PPC and SAFM … not a good thing for TSN these last two Q’s … TSN expects domestic production to increase as bird weights increase due in part to lower input costs … but prices should benefit from “halo” effect of higher beef prices … PPC should have a very good Q4 and should benefit from the lag of high chicken prices and lower feed costs.
BTW once corn drops below $4 … not if but when IMO … we may not see $4 corn again for years.
NET: From MY "TYSON" Contacts I can Confirm what you POSTED.... TYSON has been Crazy about inventory for SEVERAL YEARS NOW!! It upsets the ACCOUNTING...When a GROWER has a BETTER than PREDICTED FLOCK YIELD....Ie More birds delivered live than Average Predicted!! The Poultry Biss has Changed a lot in 3 years.... Wildman.