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SpartanNash Company Message Board

  • newbee8801 newbee8801 Jan 26, 2010 11:51 AM Flag

    How low can we go?

    Looks like another day of painting the tape to bring the stock price lower on very low volume. The question is - are the 1.6M shorts going to prevail and keep the price low so they can cover. The chineese water torture seems to be working, as the weak hands have pretty much folded. The only way I can see the 1.6M shorts covering without creating a short squeeze, is an institution indescriminately sells their position without another institution buying. While this is possible, the fact they are making money, with a low PE ratio and are trading at near book value leads me to think we are going up in the near future.
    The closing of the Plymouth warehouse will impact the 4th qtr. by approx 1.5-2.0M and will result in 2-3M a year in savings. This translates into 10-15 cents per year profit. With Michigan's economy slowly recovering, I see some upside and if an institution also sees this and starts buying, look for one hell of a short squeeze as their are only 1.8M shares that arent owned by institutions or insiders. One last thought is the closer to book value we stay at, the more likely we are to get bought out. This could lead to a very lucrative offer by a competitor or someone looking to enter the Michigan market as we recover from the ressession at a very attractive price for them.

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    • The chinese water torture continues. The shorters seem to be in complete control of this stock, paying out a 100 shares here and their holding the stock down and causing the mo mo players that are members of the buy high and sell low croud to sell their shares. The good news is since 8-1-10 the adverage shares per day traded, has decreased to 68,800 shares per day and has increased the days to cover to 23 days. Simply stated at that rate it would take them over 2 months to cover. At some point, even the dummest fund manager will figure that this stock has a great squeeze potential. That combined with SPTN having the 2nd best EBITA quarter on record should have sent us to the 17's again. Too bad most people don't listen th the quarterly web casts. Here's an excerpt from last qtr. web cast.
      “Although this past year presented significant economic and market challenges, we are pleased with our financial performance,” said Mr. Eidson. “On an adjusted basis, annual operating earnings were the second highest in our company history and for the second consecutive year, we generated annual Adjusted Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (Adjusted EBITDA) of more than $100 million.”
      Happy trading.

      • 1 Reply to newbee8801
      • Between your first and last posting (1/10 and 8/10) slight to no change in SPTN stock price. Stuck in a narrow trading range despite depressed market.

        I was wondering - did you buy SPTN at higher prices, say low 20s? Eventually, economy will get better 9-12 months down the road(could be longer?); SPTN should follow higher 15-18; retest 25-30 someday?

        If you didn't load up earlier, buy more SPTN shares at these low prices to average down.

        Other supermarket stocks in the same boat, if that is any consolidation.


    • Can't believe this stock hasn't skyrocketed this year. The bad news is pretty much behind us and the rest of the market is about 20% overpriced. SPTN is making money, closed the Plymouth warehouse and is taking the charges this qtr and looks to make 10 to 15 cents per share as a result of this. The short's as of 2-26-10 haven't changed their position much, holding around 1.7M shares short. The institutions have sold off 5% of their holdings. This leaves 2M or so to the gneral public. Last, since 1-4-10, we have traded over 10M shares or 46.6% of the total shares. This means that over 23% of the company shares are in new hands since 1-4-10. This would believe me to think the sellers are running out of stock and the shorters are going to have a very hard time covering in the near future. However this market has stayed irrational longer than a lot of people have stayed solvent.

30.58+1.69(+5.85%)Jun 30 4:00 PMEDT