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SVB Financial Group Message Board

  • TAvery49 TAvery49 Aug 25, 2003 5:17 PM Flag

    Gen.Jack, what did you

    What did you think about the turnaround yesterday and today, and the big trades shortly after 2 pm? I thought if SIVB was going to close the gap it would have broken down around the $23.20 level on Friday or today.

    August has been the worst month in recent years for the Nasdaq. There is still September and October to go, which have been memorable down months for the DJIA and the S&P. Macro, with the bond market backing up dramatically over the last month and a half, I think some big bad things may be in the offing for equities, but for now it's low volume and pretty quiet.

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    • TAvery49, the General apologizes for taking this long to respond to your question. Keep in mind that the General is not trading-oriented and therefor does not follow intra-day activity closely unless a stock is within range of either a Buy or Sell point for the General.

      The General's attention to SIVB's activity last Friday and Monday was therefor not an attention grabber. Yesterday, the General happened to ask his T/A, the Oracle at Delphi, if he took any particular note of it and the answer was the same.

      However, your question did prompt the General to looking at what the chart picture might be showing (he hadn't looked at it closely for quite a while) and it is apparent that SIVB has been working on an essentially "flat bottomed" pennant formation for the past 11 weeks.

      At the present rate of convergence of the pennant's descending top line (DTL) and slightly ascending bottom line (UTL), there would be convergence in exactly three weeks from today, 9/18/03.

      Since, a/o today, 8/28/03, the distance between the top and bottom lines defining the pennant is only 1.02 points and that distance is being diminished each weekday by about 68 mils, it can be expected that SIVB should break out of its formation, either up or down, much sooner than in three weeks.

      It appears, at the moment, that SIVB's bottom line is tracking about where its 125 EMA is.

      If you care to track the "pennant," as of today, DTL is @ 23.8075 and is decending at a rate of -0.0575 of a point per weekday (pt./wd), and UTL is @ 22.787+ and is ascending at a slope of (a hair less than) +0.0106 pt./wd.

      Maybe next week SIVB'll tell us what it wants to do.

      • 1 Reply to GenJackripper
      • Your TA analysis is obviously a lot more fine tuned than mine.

        For the last 5 days, SIVB has dropped from a high of $23.80 to a low of $23.00, closing today at $23.54, or about a 32% retracement. This is close to a Fibbonacci retracement, should 5 day charts wind your clock.

        I am familiar with "pennant and flag" formations, but unless you're flipping the chart over, these pennants aren't signalling anything but a stealth move. Classical pennants and flags are strong one day up moves, closing near the high for the day. Then the pennant [triangular] or flag [rectangular] flutters to the upside from the pole in succeeding trading days until another strong up move, constituting the next pole.

        You may be describing what I would call a series of wedges, which are wider swings in price on the left side of the formation which then narrow to a point and then break up or down. Rising wedges are usually bearish, equilateral are stronger, and a descending wedge, on lower volume, can be the strongest to the upside.

        Anyway, I think by mid-September a lot of technical answers will become apparent.

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