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SVB Financial Group Message Board

  • GenJackripper GenJackripper Oct 3, 2004 4:19 AM Flag

    Goin' for the gold?

    With its +4.16% close-to-close price gain this past week, SIVB struck the General as being hell bent on establishing a new 52-week high. Unimpressive < ADV trading volume through Thursday, however, kinda took the bloom off the rose.

    Then Friday delivered volume activity 50.30% > ADV. That's more like it.

    Friday's i-d h of 38.47 has brought SIVB to within 4.16% below the goal. Maybe this coming week will see SIVB enter the $40s.

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    • is too mercifull.

      Jeffries & Co. upgraded SIVB from a HOLD to a BUY, today, a day in which SIVB established its 14th new 52-week high (+ 12/14's i-d h which equalled 12/02's new 52-week high of $43.00) since it broke out of its 16+ week-long cup-with-handle (c-w-h) consolidation on 10/26/04.

      For those readers who would be interested in why the General has taken such a seemingly "extreme" and drastic attitude towards some 'practitioners' in the research community, he presents the following chronological "anatomy":

      Thursday, 7/01/04:

      SIVB "peaks out" in its run up @ an i-d h of $39.90 and begins to decline (into what the future will show is a 16+ week-long c-w-h consolidation).


      Friday, 8/06/04:

      In the course of forming the descending left side of the "cup," SIVB gaps down -0.45 of a point (between Thursday's i-d l of $35.25 and Friday's i-d h of $34.80).


      Monday, 8/09/04:

      SIVB establishes (what time will show is) the cup's nadir point @ its session's i-d l of $32.38 (= -18.85% below 7/01/04's "peak-out").


      Monday, 8/16/04:

      A week after "nadiring," SIVB, now on the ascension, closes the gap-down created 6 sessions earlier on 8/06/04, when it ranges between $34.19 to $35.99, in a session in which it closes up 1.49 points (+4.37%) on a volume of 492,000 shares (= 197.45% of its then 3-months ADV of 249,181).


      Sunday, 10/03/04:

      The General posts "Goin' for the gold? (message #!964 ...to which this message 'replies'). SIVB had continued building the rising right side of its "cup" and had closed on that previous Friday's session @ $38.78.


      Thursday, 10/07/04:

      SIVB's i-d h "peaks-out" @ $39.40 and begins declining to form the cup's descending "handle" (on lighter trading volume). In doing so, SIVB has now established its c-w-h's "pivot point" of 0.10 of a point above its "peak-out" price. Pivot point = 39.40 + 0.10 = 39.50.

      Passing upward through a c-w-h's pivot point on significantly above ADV volume is a technical "BUY!" breakout signal.


      Wedneday, 10/20/04:

      SIVB declines to an i-d l of 37.30 (a -5.57% below its pivot point), touching and bouncing off its 50-EMA. The future will prove this to be the low point of its "handle."


      Friday, 10/22/04:

      Now rising from its handle's low point towards its c-w-h's "breakout," SIVB closes its session @ $38.54, a -2.43% below its breakout's pivot point. Its session's i-d h of $39.06 is now a mere -1.11% below said pivot point.


      Monday, 10/25/04:

      With SIVB now within striking distance of breaking out to new 52-week highs, what does Jeffries & Co. do? They issue a DOWNGRADE, of course, from a BUY to a HOLD!

      Now while a "Hold" can be interpreted as really a "Sell," the market (fortunately) pays no attention to Jeffries & Co.'s downgrade and continues to push SIVB's price higher (by 75� that session � + 1.95%). Its i-d h of $39.29 brings it to within a mere -0.53% below the $39.50 pivot point (and potential "breakout").


      Tuesday, 10/26/04:

      On the morrow of Jeffries & Co.'s downgrade, what does SIVB do? Its i-d h penetrates (by a penny) above the pivot point on a session's volume of 395,000 shares traded (~153.51% of the then 3-months ADV).


      Wednesday, 10/27/04:

      SIVB breaks out, establishing a new 52-week high ($40.22).


      Thursday, 10/28/04:

      Continuation of the above ($40.48).


      Thursday, 12/23/04:

      Having gotten as high as $44.27 (on 12/21), an increase of +12.08% above its pivot/breakout point, Jeffries & Co. now decides that it's time to BUY SIVB and issues its upgrade.

      Since this is supposed to be the season for goodwill toward all, the General will extend wishes for a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to the readers here and even expand it to include the research anal-ists @ Jeffries & Co.

    • GenJack,

      Every time in 2004 SIVB has come near $40/sh, which has been at the end of January and the end of June/first of July, it has turned tale and declined.

      Since the last retreat from near $40, it has made what looks like a higher low.

      I appreciate your projections as to some price targets. I wonder how those projections square with the trailing PE of 45? There may have been a quarter where the earnings fell short in the trailing 12 months, but at 20x earnings I would contend SIVB is fully valued. If the rally in the Nasdaq continues and VC funding keeps going strong, I could see the projections coming to fruition. However, it seems axiomatic, to make some higher trading ranges, SIVB has to get through $40 and then turn that level into support rather than resistance

      • 1 Reply to TAvery49
      • TAvery49, the General took your query to a 'higher authority', the General's own T/A, the Oracle at Delphi. So you're are 'getting the gouge' from the horse's mouth (so-to-speak)rather than from the opposite end of the equine.

        The question you've posed is one based on 'technicals'(as you well know) and you're mixing it with fundamentals (P/E) in the hope that they will seem reasonably non-exclusive and confirmative. The Oracle acknowledges your point about BPOP appearing fully-valued on a P/E basis, but is giving an answer based solely on the technicals.

        And that answer is that SIVB's first line of resistance when it exceeds/breaks through $40 will be $46.50.

        He also sees the potential for SIVB to return to the $60 realm.

    • The first sentence of the final paragraph should read:

      Friday's i-d h of 38.47 has brought SIVB to within 3.73% below the goal.

      (not 4.16%.)

 
SIVB
145.24+1.86(+1.30%)Aug 4 3:59 PMEDT