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Silicon Valley Bancshares (SIVB) Message Board

  • brotherbucks brotherbucks Jan 4, 2005 8:42 AM Flag


    This could be a good to very good year for SIVB. The fed will continue to crank the FFR up in 1/4 point increments at almost every FOMC meeting this year. A.G.'s goal probably is to get it to its historical 45 year average of 4%. I calculate that for every 1/4 point increase the price of SIVB could rise about $1.50. An increase od 1.75% for the year could add $10 to the price (some factored in already?). Additionally the VC's may well be stirring-the recent quarter reports that investment has hit the highest ($20 bil) since 2000. This bodes well for SIVB in several ways;
    1) New investments in existing clients brings more deposits.2)New VC investments brings new clients,new loan fees,new deposits,etc.3)SIVB's VC portfolio's will grow in value.4) SIVB's own VC funds will also see value growth.5) The SIVB M&A activity will see growth.6) Still no active nationwide competition.
    Remember that I may be confusing hope for reality and that major international repercussions could derail this freight train. Bush's muddled economic "policy"-such as it is- could/will hurt us but only in the long term (3 to 5 years out).
    A good 2005 to all.

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