22 is major resistance. back in april, it was support, but since the gap down in june, it seems to be staunch resistance. soon, the 50 dma will hit the 22 level, so we'll need to contend with that as well
this stock is not out of the woods yet, but once it can clear these levels, we could be ok. some good things going for us is the massive amount of short interest and the fact that book value is $13.50/share. even shitty banks are taken over these days for 2-3 times book, and SIVB is not shitty
I did not meant to imply that there were any ticking time bombs. Their credit quality continues to improve, and they are trading at only a slight premium to book. All I meant was that the trailing p/e is a lot lower than forward p/e because SIVB makes less in a declining interest rate environment.
I like the stock here, though waiting to see if it holds support at $18 before doubling position.
I read the earnings report quite carefully. To me, everything looks great. Any kind of P/E's and Price to Book look VERY low. SIVB isn't really in any kind of trouble, so I don't see why it's ratios shouldn't rise to the typical levels for banks within the next year. The warrants are just the icing on the cake, and if there's hardly any icing that doesn't mean that the cake isn't any good.
macdaddy: I read the brief postcard of the earnings reports. No ticking time bombs I could detect. I disagree with your core earnings projection over the next 12 months. Also, the trailing PE has just as much validity as the financials over the last quarter. What do you think gets SIVB to the trailing PE?
The NASDAQ today is telling us: don't wait too long. Tech will be better, perhaps not across the board, but its leaders will be higher in 12 months. Probably more like 3 to 6 for the stock prices. Who will be the Banker for many of them?
"What are the proforma numbers for SIVB? EPS for this year and next?"
What?....are you handicapped? Mental or phsyical?
If you don't know how to find this info you have no business asking or investing.
When I snap my fingers you will wake up and forget any of this happened.
i'm long, but trailing p/e is irrelevant. the market looks forward, and sivb's "core" earnings in the next 12 months will be much lower than the prior 12. that said, the valuation is ridiculously cheap. may double my position after i read the financials in the earnings report
bigb280, 18 is also a multiyear low, so if you look back to Sep. of '99, SIVB could be flailing for support if it breaks 18 convincingly. However, I think 12 would be a real stretch unless we get into a serious deflationary spiral down or a multi-country currency crisis that really hits some of SIVB's customers. I, too am nibbling, but I'll save some cash for SIVB if it does break 18. This would put SIVB at a trailing PE of 7 or so.
I've become quite skilled at gauging the impact of the hi-tech heavyweights' earnings reports on NASDAQ immediate performance. That day was particularly easy with Yahoo, MSFT (preanounce), SONS, RBAK, and MOT reporting. Could be clairvoyance as well, I just felt certain! :)