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Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

  • simp08801 simp08801 Mar 1, 2013 7:14 AM Flag

    what is the minimum you might learn next week

    The CEO publicly speaks twice next week

    March 4 at Cowen event

    March 7 on Q1 results call

    there are many things that he could or could not say!

    but there is one important fact that I think will, by definition, be disclosed next friday

    and that important fact is whether or not the FDA meeting has already occurred or is to occur by end of March

    by definition, the CEO will either say "we are planning to meet with the FDA during Q1" (a statement he has previously made several times) OR he will say "we have met with the FDA during Q1")

    I am certain he will not say "we plan to" if he already did

    and I believe that one fact on whether THE meeting has or has not occurred yet is quite important

    why?

    because such fact enables you to put a reliable collar on when you will learn about the KEY ISSUE, namely whether Srpt will or will not file an AA application with the FDA

    if the CEO says the FDA meeting already occurred, it is a good bet you will know about whether an AA app will or will not be filed by no later than early to mid April (based on the embedded assumption that such meeting occurred at the end of February)

    If the CEO says the FDA meeting will occur in Q1, it is a good bet you will know about whether an AA app will be filed by no later than early to mid May (based on the embedded assumption that such meeting will not occur until the end of March)

    and to dance on the pin head for one more moment, if you assume the meeting date was earlier than end of February or end of March, such as the middle of the month, then you shorten the applicable collar by 2 weeks

    my own blind #$%$ guess is that you will know by mid April

    which is a blink away

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14.06+0.70(+5.24%)Mar 4 4:00 PMEST

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