I believe it is now confirmed that the Russell 2000 Index Fund buy in is, in fact, around 2,800,000 shares worth
the Russell rebalance schedule is as follow
June 14 - preliminary list of additions/deletions issued (Srpt is a guaranteed Russell 2000 addition)
June 21 - first list update issued
June 28 - 2nd list update issued AND rebalance effective at market close
in other words, the Index Funds will all be buying the stock from the market makers in the the last 30 minutes of trading into the early after hours (you will see huge block trades at or near the June 28 closing price)
the real question relates to how the market makers choose to fund the sell side of the Index Fund buy trades
in my experience, generally, it seems that the MM's mostly use their Reg Sho "bonafide market making" exception to the naked short prohibition, and naked short the stock to the Index Funds
what happens next is obvious to those who have followed this process: over the next several trading days, the MM's will engage in gross price manipulation to recover the stock they shorted out
I strongly believe this is what happens most of the time, but it is not universal
and perhaps a company like Srpt will be the exception
I cannot comprehend how a self respecting marketmaker would review the Srpt float situation and conclude that naked shorting Srpt to fill the Index Funds is a wise move
the analysis of the float is relatively easy and can be done very quickly, as the shares out and shares short are public, and making an educated guess on long shares locked up is not that hard
the reported short interest as of May 30 will be out at 4pm on Tuesday, June 11
assuming the MM's do not want to short the stock, they appear to have a ton of buying to do in a relatively short period of time
and during this exact period of time, it is a good bet that the process of the activists delivering patient anecdotal evidence to the FDA will be taking place, and will be publicly commented on by the activists ...
Check out INSM - big boys like Fidelity, Baker Bros, Orbimed. RA CApital have been loading up on this one. Think this will be next multibagger as it will be added to Russell Index this year. Stock has performed great - think goes to $25 in 2 months......
Don't forget also that all stocks are surging. Biotechs are leading the pack. The ETF's and mutual funds may be experiencing a swing back to risk. Who would want .1% interest when they hear that stocks are coming back.
During the tech boom getting incorporated into an index meant instant wealth for the shareholders and especially for the call holders. The shorting lately has backed off and retail shareholders selling into price spikes have been getting wacked (thank ...). So this time may be different. Sarepta's stock behavior has changed. Who's going to fight the trend?
It's clear to me that you have more experience than the average investor in SRPT, related to how index funds and market makers balance long/short positions, relative to specific stocks within the Russell 2000. Assuming SRPT is added, what's your best guess as to how this plays out relative to pps on or near June 28?