Out of the 12 DMD pts on SRPT drug.
What do you guys think will happen to the stock price when one day you wake up and find out this news.
The news: Something happened to one of the 12 boys on the active drug. Something could be any thing but mostly some side effect related to the drug....
The point is you longs have no idea that even a slight bad thing happening to those small number of boys can ruin the stock. Any thing meaning any thing, even if its not related to the active drug.
The risks are too high. Also remember shorts are more often right then wrong.....
Disclosure: I am short by having 10 november puts at $40 strike price.
This comment is not to influence any stock price as i barely have $2500 in the options which is nothing. I actually hope that this drugs really works and my $2500 is worthless compared to lives and quality for thoses DMD boys.
This is just to stir some thoughts and comments from the longs. Hope you guys understand and respond responsibly .
Sentiment: Strong Buy
where have you seen here anyone commenting that this stock has zero risk ?..................keep shortin marky mark..............................lying creeps like you are what makes us want to shower on a regular basis
So, your investment thesis is to bet on "any thing, even if its not related to the active drug"? Most people invest based on the evidence at hand, which includes a safety database that is pristine, including pre-clinical animal studies that show the drug can be dosed safely at multiples higher than what the boys have been on for two years with no safety issues. Is there a chance that one of the boys in the confirmatory trial has some kind of allergic/negative reaction to the drug? Possibly, but do you really think the FDA is going to deny treatment of a deadly disease to thousands of boys if there is a chance at a safety issue for a small portion of the patient population. It's called risk-benefit - you should look into it!
there are no side effects to the drug this basic molecule has been given to hundreds(yes you heard correct ) hundreds of people with no side effects period. If one dies from some other cause the data for approval is already in.
I am invested HEAVY in the stock, and I HAVE though of exactly the above risk. My thesis:
(i) Yes, anything is possible in medicine (or in general in any stock). Yes, the stock can crash for one of many reasons. That's the GAMBLE I am taking. Is it worth it? Time will tell.
(ii) More importantly, because DMD is a FATAL disease, even if one of the patients were to DIE (God forbid), the stock/drug will STILL SURVIVE. Read it again. Yes, since the disease is fatal anyway, if the mortality of the drug is say 10%, it may still be worth the risk.
In either case, anything is possible in the stock market (and life, in general). You gotta play the odds though.
You think shorting the stock is playing in the right direction of risk? Who knows. Time will tell.
Some obvious chart technicals and current news all pointing towards higher stock prices in near future. Unfortunately whenever i bought calls on this stock they have expired worthless.
But i am sure now since i have puts this stock will skyrocket , Its just typical of what happens when i choose the option :-)
I bought those puts based on some deeper / not obvious technical analysis but i can be dead wrong as i have been many times before :-)