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Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

  • zwerp2000 zwerp2000 Nov 7, 2013 10:57 AM Flag

    This drop is very painful but....

    As i have said before, most bios are getting destroyed. There is a sector rotation out of bio plays. Many have dropped by at least 50%. SRPT is just one of many going down.

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    • zwerp...
      I have never understood this as an adequate explanation. As you'd be talking about LONG big money/funds, then doing so at these levels would indicate their goal is to MINIMIZE profits on their investment as this is now more than 40% off it's high just one month ago.

      If you have an explanation or reference which will help illuminate this, I'd be grateful. I've seen it dozens of times with AVI/SRPT and the explanation is so counter intuitive to my thinking that I haven't been able to swallow it yet. Even in sector rotations I've seen in the past--apart from a total-market-panic situations--there still have been 'golden' stocks which went counter to the trend. As was pointed out, we're about 5.75/sh presplit, levels we were above in 2003 and 2006 with much less promise on the horizon.

      OTOH, through the years, the appearance of new trolls on sell-side has coincided with big bear/short attacks in the past. So, I guess I seem to see it as a bear/short side action almost completely. If you can explain how 'big money' can play both sides for a win then perhaps I can see that--I just don't have enough to understand why/how they could/would.

      FWIW, to me we seem so undervalued at present. I guess I'm glad there hasn't been any BAD news, or we might be down more than 40%, right?!!


      • 2 Replies to jrrt1
      • jrrt, they play both sides. They buy the offering & ride it up. They then put on a short & cover at lower prices. Their taking profits on the way up or down, but they've got their positions protected with options or shares on the other side. This is big money playing with stock.

      • jrrt:

        there is no adequate explanation that totally explains all trading

        its a little bit of everything usually

        consider this:

        Yale, for example, has a degree program called "financial engineering", where I know someone in the program

        in english, its program trading

        hedge funds have paid huges sums of money for trading programs that are not just designed to push on stocks, but also to cover on the way down, to minimize the net short remaining out at the end of the cycle

        this, of course, requires lemming longs to complete the cycle

        all stocks have lemming longs in them, so more than others

        the process is why during a heavy volume down side trade period, even though the net short does not decrease, it also does not materially increase either (creating illusion that shorts are not involved, but they are, triple net, in and out)

        I am sure srpt has been program traded since the 55s

        the head scratcher here is that the institutional ownership interest was so high, that it would be logical to assume that the institutional longs would at least partially protect the price

        this is when you start hearing things like "year-end tax loss selling, etc., as people desparately try to make sense of the trading

        this is what I have learned


        the market is generally currupt, long and short, and retail are the lemmings

        period, end of story, forever

        if you own the stock when bomb bullish news hits, or bomb bearish news hits, you are a big winner or loser

        rest of the time, you are a lemming

        if I had a dollar for every srpt investor who this minute thinks that something bad as leaked, it would add up to a lot of dollars ... where in reality, it is probably 99% that nothing bad leaked

        35 to 55 and then 55 to 35

        welcome to lemmingville

    • Yes, but there is also something more, I guess. Without the 4th biopsy the odds of AA are lower, and without AA shorts know they can short this stock for a while. Hopefully, the 10 boys will keep on doing well in the meantime.

    • Yep. Take a look at what has happened with VRTX in just the past 8 days. Ouch.

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