I'm going to steal a topic started on twitter that I found interesting and post it here. I want to see what the regular posters on this message board have to say.
Independent of Phase 3, what is the Probability of the FDA reversing their decision on approval and what would the stock price close at on the next day if approved.
I'll kick it off with 45% and 85
75% and $75 - $85 on the pop. Analysts upgrades will take it higher in the following week. For the record, the pre-meeting comments do not always represent a formal position, so the concept of a reversal is not the best way to classify this situation. Time will tell.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Yes, I was going to post that I understand the FDA has stated that it officially has not made a decision yet. However its a reversal from Chris reported in November. I think everyone catches the point of the question though.
I am more interested to see what everyone's take is on probability of approval than price. Thanks for everyone's input.