It would be interesting to hear from Bionerd & Tred about the prospect of OGXI PIII being successful. Clearly the market does not believe they will succeed. This is my radar but I don't feel a strong urge to buy.
kart - It was strange to see your post - I have a small stake in OGXI and have been trying to figure out whether to add to my position before the PIII results are revealed. Their press release earlier this week was initially disturbing in the sense that they announced the number of survival events had been reached, but it would be a while before they announced the results of the trial - this is unusual for a survival endpoint to take any kind of time to analyze - how long does it take to establish the time the patient was in the trial and whether they were in the treated or control arm? I have never seen a delay like this before, but in looking at their presentation in Nov at Credit Suisse, they predicted this delay in announcing the results - perhaps because of the large number of patients in the trial and almost 100 trial sites, it takes a while to pool and confirm the data. In any event, if the ~7 month survival benefit in the Phase II trial (24 mos vs 17 mos in 82 patients) holds up in the Phase III trial, then it should be a slam dunk. From some of the MB discussions I have read, the expectation is for the control arm to do better than in Phase II (due to new therapies for 2nd-line patients who have failed other therapies), but if that potential benefit is also available to the custirsen patients (after they fail/progress) and the 7 month differential holds, the trial numbers are large enough to handle a shift in the curve - i.e. if the survival numbers end up being 29 treated vs 22 control, the n is large enough to establish that as statistically significant. Bottom line - I love the concept - a drug that fights resistance allowing conventional chemo to work better - and the markets for custirsen are huge (prostate & NSCLC), so the upside here is substantial - worth taking a meaningful position, IMO. I haven't been able to listen to the Leerink presentation - anything new or impressive?