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Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

  • mjrruby2000000 mjrruby2000000 Apr 24, 2014 2:58 PM Flag

    Why Shorts Are Taking Their Time Covering.......

    Let me start by saying that I am long, and have no short interest. If everything goes as we KNOW it, the next major event will be the filing of an NDA at the end of this year. It is possible that in the interim there might be:
    1. A takeover bid
    2. Some sort of partnership deal
    3. A government order for our Marburg drug
    4. Some announcement concerning our flu drug
    If none of these things occur, we are looking at 8 months with no important announcements. Those of us who have been around awhile know what happens to small biotech stocks, with no or little income, and no important news for a period of 7 or 8 months.
    Since I am a long term investor I will take the opportunity to add to my position carefully over this period.
    When all is said and done, I do believe this company will become a major biopharmaceutical company and investors will be well rewarded.
    Good luck to all.....ruby

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Another out of the blue surprise that could come quickly were it pursued: Jon Moulton, who knows morpholinos "well", has said on this blog that he thinks the dystrophin produced by etiplirsen may well build up over time way beyond that found at 48 weeks. A 4th biopsy demonstrating this fact at 120+ weeks, along with the current pulmonary stabilization and 6MW data, would be powerfully positive news. Such biopsies could be done quickly. Not that I want the kids to be carved on again; no I don't. But this is another concept not yet mentioned that addresses your question.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • There could be some large long interests who shorted at 40 or 50-something, locking in that price until it returns, at which point it will become rocket fuel. Just one concept not yet mentioned.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • It's called "denial". They are so convinced that eteplirsen is just a sham, and further testing will only validate that, with expanded clinical trials. So they choose to remain short. I'm fine with that. When the pain becomes too great there WILL be covering when denial begins to crumble, and then the dam will break when we surpass the $45-$48 range. Short covering then will cascade, pushing the price to $60.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • You left out the most important one, the Parent advocates they been stirring it pretty good do you think they will stop. The 4th biopsy will happen IMO because it will move the other exons forward faster, and put an end to FDA doubts of production(Dystrophin). CG has stated there will be news second half on other programs.

    • You are speculating right? So unless you can see the future I would personally take your comments with a gain of salt. Barron's reported that all kinds of funds were underinvested in Sarepta.Think they might invest? I doubt if today's secondary satisfied their appetite . I could come up with at least 5-6 things that would propel the stock forward.

    • "If none of these things occur, we are looking at 8 months with no important announcements."

      You missed one. Good 144-week data, expected to be reported in early July, will create the expectation that AA is pretty much a done deal, barring unforeseen safety issues developing, an unlike possibility IMO.

      • 2 Replies to dr_mysterio
      • One of the ancedotal's I hear suggest we might hear at least some case of spectacular 144 wk data. I don't think market has completely priced in anything other than good. The other thing is there is a chance other data may be released. There is still lots of data being analyzed and papers being written. Including possibly a paper showing MRI data on these boys. If it shows the boys building good muscles, it would make a strong case.

        There is also some slight potential the FDA could decide to work further to speed the drug to market. Possibly something from the dystrophin analysis pathologists working with the FDA might trigger this.

        There are also possibilities the patent issue in the EU could be resolved favorably, of course the corrallaly is true also. The appeals have been submitted earlier this year. Another possibility is Sarepta and Prosensa reach a license agreement.

        Possibly the UK could do something very surprising.

        We could hear an update on large scale manufacturing that is favorable.

        It is interesting on the Sarepta website there is an opening -- Senior Director, Project Management - Government Programs. Most thinking government programs go away. It is not obvious from this opening Sarepta is working under the same assumption.

        Lots and lots of possibilities.

        Sentiment: Buy

      • Yup, 144 week data could blow the lid off.

    • Thanks for telling the board everything we already know...It's nice to see it in print.....

 
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