Roth and Barrons estimate U.S. sales of 2.2 billion for SRPT
That sales estimate is just US sales which is about 40% of dmd population. 2.2 billion in sales with average of 28% margins
=$616,000,000 in profit x low estimate PE of 10 (orphan drugs generally have much higher multiples) = 6,160,000,000 market cap or approx $152. bucks per share for US ALONE. Add in the rest of the world and we are looking at a 300 dollar stock. Ya really want to short this?
That's because ISIS is selling its pipeline to the market, i.e. S. Crooke, Cramer etc... Not to mention their many big Pharma partners, loads of cash and multiple products, in which two mega potentials have hit the press in the last few weeks....mid stage trials. They have 25 to 30 compounds in their pipe line and they PR the advancement of the various programs backed by big money partners. SRPT has been 100% DMD and that's all the market ever hears. The market treats SRPT as a one shot-binary wonder, where as ISIS can absorb set back shocks for years as the pipeline continues to cycle through. It would be nice to hear about our other platforms, but until then, we will not get pipeline respect as you have mentioned. If the exon domain is validated, we won't need it.
ISIS isn't under valued. Its already trading at a 3 billion market cap with nothing to show yet.
It may be a good play, but not at these levels. I would rather have a stock that 35 bucks with potential to go to 300 like srpt