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  • mmmparsley mmmparsley Oct 20, 2006 5:31 AM Flag

    Something is definitely up

    Something may be up, but nothing needs to be up for this to still be considered a decent value (althought not irresisitable) at this price.

    If is correct with it's rankings, and if traffic to isn't being manipulated (and I don't think it is this time around) then is showing the beginning of a resurgence due to their powerful copernic technology. Many of those who have and will download aol openride are being awakened to mamma's desktop search. Aol openride users may find the browser's interface less than user friendly, but will likely find copernic's desktop search feature worlds apart from the one integrated in xp and vista.

    Check out interchange (incx)which is now specialized in local search. Revenues suck as much as, but look at it's valuation at 75-85% higher than over the last week. How is it possible with lower traffic and without a program rated highest in it's class can it be trading for 20 million dollars more than mama.

    Now, realize mamma has 8 million dollars in cash + copernic and no debt. 8 million + a complete health search (undiscovered but powerful technology) + copernic + web search. If it simply liquidated right now, what would it be worth? Copernic is likely worth more than 16 million, especially considering recent attention brought to it along with the upgrade CDS 2.0. Now, only with copernic and cash, it's already almost up to current valuation.

    I've played this stock perfectly, from 1.02 to 1.92 then from 1.75 to 2.03. I bought back again at 1.83 and then 1.73 and watched it sink to 1.59, however I wasn't going to sell because I bought mamma for valuation reasons, not hype. Valuation, and not hype, is going to keep mamma from sinking back to under 1.50 for as far as we can see into the future unless something material changes. For those who didn't get the chance to buy in at $1 dollar a share, try to keep better tabs on the market next time. I"m sure there are a few hidden gems like mama that were trading for far under fair value.

    What the announcement of the integration to openride actually did was to bring attention to an overlooked value play based on balance sheet fundamentals. It simply forced an upswing faster than I anticipated.

    At 1.93, I think mama is a short term hold and long term buy. Do your own DD. Many of you are claiming mamma will go to 3 soon, but I would doubt that. If it does, sell it and buy back later. Let another fool take a chance at 3 dollars. Let another fool buy INCX too! At 2.50 I would content, but reluctant to sell. Until then, it's certainly a hold from a valuation perspective.

    Take care,

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    • By the way, One of those overlooked right now is SMIT - but do your own dd on that one.

      Smit should triple within 2 years. It's currently being discounted because althought pretax earnings are growing dramatically along with 30 percent of it's valuation sitting in cash, temporary recognition of deferred tax assets are making the bottom line a lot less appealing than the story really is.

      Watch it... or even buy it if you agree. MY basis is 7.20, so I'm currently at a loss, but not in the least bit worried.


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