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XPO Logistics, Inc. Message Board

  • peter_norths_proctologist peter_norths_proctologist Mar 1, 2012 4:27 PM Flag

    incredible action

    The stock is up 15 out of the last 16 trading days. And today, it slashed through the 52-week high like butter, and closed above it on good volume.

    I placed a sell order this morning for half my shares at $17.50, then I went back to sleep, thinking there might be a blow-off top near the 52-week high and then major profit taking. Woke up at 3:30 PM and saw the price well above $17.50 and holding new highs? WTF? How am I gonna git my shares back?

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    • Too bad you ain't getting your shares back for a while. It's down 8%. This stock is way overpriced and overvalued. Dump it till it hits $11

      • 1 Reply to jerome_yap
      • load up the truck. We all knew this dilution was coming, they did not have the money to pull the trigger on a deal that will change their view within the industry and the investment community. six million shares is still not enough probably, but he knows what he's doing. Buy now and talk to me in a year. If you have the patience, which most don't.

    • One never knows, but I submit that the volume is still low enough, although much higher than it has been, that until an acquisition happens, nobody wants out. Anticipation is a better motivator than actual news, and we are still in that sweet spot. Obviously for those that have been around a while, this seems too good to be true and that is universally scary. No stock goes up 15 of 16 days, but this one has. Bottom line, of course there is great risk on a run like this, but at least the fundamental story hasn't changed. They can grow, execute and be worth more. Put some stops in for a portion because it protects you, but I am on record as saying I am still optimistic that there is more room before the acq. is announced, and that institutions which will buy if he executes, for the most part are not in yet.

      • 1 Reply to chickeneyedhorsedog
      • The momentum and technical traders could very well move this stock above $20. But that doesn't mean the price is justified based on fundamentals.

        When Jacobs first came on board and the stock reached $17.50 (split adjusted), I said the stock was approaching optimistic fair value ASSUMING JACOBS USES THE FIRST $75 MILLION TRANCHE IN FULL to make good acquisitions. And that hasn't even happened yet. At the current valuation, the market has already priced in the "fact" that Jacob's has employed $75 million cash to purchase $150 million in additonal revenue. (notice I put the word "fact" in quotes. It's not a fact, but the market thinks it is.)

        How do I get to fair value?

        Take the curent $190 million annual revenue run rate, and tack on another $150 million revenue that will come from using all their available cash. Totals $340 million annual revenue.

        Apply a liberal P/S ratio of 1.0 to get to a market cap of $340 million. Note that ECHO, a high growth logistics, has a P/S ratio of only 0.7. So I'm being very liberal in applying P/S ratio of 1.0 for XPO.

        XPO sharecount = 19 million shares

        Maximum share valuation $340/19 = $17.90/share

        For Jacobs to make more acquisitons than their current $75 million will allow (which happens to be priced in already) requires additional dilution to shareholders, which will damper the stock.

        I sold half my stake based on valuation, and kept the other half to profit from the herd mentality of stupid day traders. I will fill out my position when the stock bases near the 50-dma.

    • Simple....You're Not....On News We Get $30......Should've Waited For News....

 
XPO
40.51+1.03(+2.61%)Dec 18 4:05 PMEST

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